So, how has your day been?
Good?
Anything noteworthy happen recently?
Yea, me neither.
When I wrote the ACU recap, I didn’t have any inside information on what may happen with Shaka Smart. I didn’t realize I would effectively nail how the scenario would play out, and I wish I was half this accurate when it comes to picking stocks. This is one of the most useless gifts ever bestowed upon a human and it will probably go away on its own sooner than later; I have the insight equivalent of plantar warts. Fantastic.
So here we are, with no coach and every asshole with internet access coming up with their list of who Texas should go get. Since I definitely qualify for that description, I might as well put up my own list. This list is not objective; while I’ll try to give a reasonable picture of every coach mentioned, I won’t hide my preferences. Some of these coaches I’m not as high on as you may be, others I may like more than you do. I don’t think my preferred candidates are guaranteed to succeed, but they wouldn’t be preferred if I thought they didn’t at least stand a solid chance of winning at Texas.
The Primary Options
Chris Beard
I’m starting here because everybody else is starting here. Some people aren’t looking beyond him which is probably not an ideal plan, but I imagine CDC has several options he’s working through. I’ll probably spend more time on this one than anyone else because he’s the name many Texas fans have been talking about for the last 4 or so years, and I’m going to spend more time on the downside because it seems like people are mostly looking at the upside.
The Upside
He checks a lot of the boxes in the last article: he’s 48 so he could be around a long time, he isn’t at a blue blood so he’s theoretically poachable, and he’s clearly interested in the job.
He has a Final Four on his resume, and he’s tied for the Big 12 regular season title which Texas hasn’t done since 2008, so the ceiling for him is as high as anybody Texas can realistically get.
He knows how to recruit, and his defenses are reliably stout.
The Downside
His offense is…not great. Conceptually it’s not terrible, but his roster decisions (more on this below) make it difficult for him to ever really optimize that end of the floor. He is as reliant on a superlative offensive talent as Shaka or Rick Barnes ever were to cover for the shortcomings on that end. To that point, I’m going to post a handful of stats below:
One of those teams is this year’s Tech squad, one is last year’s Texas squad, and one is Rick Barnes’ last season in Austin. You can figure out which is which if you’re so inclined to look it up, but the fact you’re probably going to need to look it up is kinda the point. Chris Beard teams have the same scoring droughts that Texas teams have had that made you gnash your teeth, they have the same issues filling up the basket that a lot of Texas teams have. Chris Beard does not win games pretty, and he does not win with beautiful offense. His teams play slow, they grind, and they rely on defense to win games. You are signing up for a lot of first-team-to-60 rock fights if you bring him in. You may not care if it results in wins, and that’s fair. But, you know, you’ve been warned.
Chris Beard has a lot of roster churn, and I do mean a lot of roster churn. He’s averaging 3 players leaving via the transfer portal the last three years in addition to the guys who go pro early, which is happening more frequently now that he’s bringing in more top-50 players. He also seems to lose those top-50 recruits nearly as fast as he signs them. Jahmi’us Ramsey left after a season when he was only getting drafted in the 2nd round, Nimari Burnett made it half a season before transferring, Khavon Moore played so few minutes for Tech before transferring I had to actively dig to find his KenPom stats. There’s an argument to be made that Beard’s preferred style and preferred type of player is just as incongruous with what Texas tends to land as Shaka Smart when he first got here, and he will have to either scale down the type of player he wants to the 3-star types who will happily grind 60-56 wins with defense and taking charges, or he’ll have to change his offensive philosophy to suit the higher-level players. The thing is, he’s been in this same situation at Tech, and he hasn’t changed much at all. He’s as guilty of going after high-level recruits as Shaka was - and it makes sense, you want talent! - but where Shaka went away from HAVOC/SHART to a more NBA-style of offense, Beard keeps running his motion principles. That style of offense works best with an experienced roster who has been running it forever, and constantly bringing in 6-8 new faces every year means the execution is going to be highly variable. I have concerns that he’s going to continue to churn rosters wherever he is next year, and if that’s at Texas it will be a headwind on the program’s potential. Beard can recruit, but his ability/desire to retain talent is an open question.
Money is a primary concern as he’s already making $5m/year and would probably need a substantial raise to come to Texas. I know there’s a portion of the Texas crowd who thinks CDC will money-whip him because something something we’re the Joneses, despite the fact that this is no longer 1985 and TV revenue deals mean more schools can pay their coaches like Texas can. Hell, Tech could still go higher on his pay if they really want to keep him around. It’s not like Texas can offer $5.5m and Tech won’t at least consider matching. I don’t know what CDC’s salary cap is on the job, but if he’s talking to Beard then he’s at least willing to consider breaching $5m/year for the right person. This might be the only person he’s willing to do it for, we’ll see.
I don’t know if there is a way to put this politely: Beard can get away with some things at Tech that might not happen at Texas. I don’t pretend that Texas is clean and pure as the driven snow, but Tech’s compliance staff is not putting up as big a fight as Texas’ compliance staff will. How do I know this? Because Shaka was interested in one of Beard’s assistants before said assistant joined Tech, and Texas compliance came back with something akin to ‘lolnowtf’. I’m not going to name the assistant, but I know that story is true. There are other stories similar to this that I can’t divulge, but suffice it to say it’s a thing. And look, I’m not saying he’s a bad person - by all accounts he’s a decent guy - but if we’re talking about downsides his potential exposure to a Will Wade/Bill Self situation is not zero.
I think the way I would put it for Beard is that his ceiling is Peak Barnes and his average is more like Late Barnes. There’s just a lot of him that screams Barnes 2.0 to me; while Texas could definitely do a lot worse than that and Beard is probably the safest bet on this list, it’s a lot of money to pay for a product that isn’t particularly fun to watch and may not be a ton better than what got the last two coaches let go. Paying $6m/year for Final Four runs is justifiable, but paying $6m/year for 2nd-round exits will get old really fast.
Royal Ivey
This is a name I hadn’t heard much prior to a couple of weeks ago; there was a little mention of him a year ago but it wasn’t nearly the volume it is this time around, largely because big name former Texas players like KD & TJ are actively pushing him as an option. If they’re on board, then he’s a name you have to consider.
The Upside
He gets Texas. As hacky as that is to say, a guy who played here and has maintained relationships here understands the pros and cons of the job better than most. He knows that and is still interested.
Current and former NBA players rave about him, both as a teammate and as an assistant coach. There’s a common thought that he’s only a few years away from becoming a NBA head coach, so he has the chops from a tactical standpoint. It’s possible that if he’s not hired now, he might not be an option the next time.
He’s going to be considerably cheaper than someone like Beard, which means Texas has more cash to surround him with a great staff. Believe it or not, Texas does have a budget for salaries, and saving a couple million on the head coach could help bring in top-tier assistants.
The Downside
Raise your hand if you have any idea what kind of offense or defense he’s going to run, because I don’t. I could speculate that he’s going to run a NBA-style offense based on where he’s been, but that’s just speculation. I would also expect him to be a fan of analytics but again, that’s speculation. He might have great ideas for both ends of the floor, but it’s basically a giant question mark until I hear some details.
As mentioned above, he’s going to need to be surrounded by really good assistants as he gets used to the college game. Texas will need to get him a couple of really good recruiters to help out while he builds those relationships or else he runs the risk of dealing with roster issues the first couple of seasons. If you don’t think that’s an issue, look at how long it took Shaka to really find his groove and what it did to the trajectory of the program.
It has to be acknowledged that there are some people who seem to like this idea because they want to “do a Juwan Howard” without really understanding how that worked out uniquely well for him and may not be replicable. Maybe Texas can do it, but it’s not the norm.
Ivey is definitely a higher risk play, but I’m very open to the idea. Honestly, I’d rather try this than Beard. I may be in the minority here, but as a Texas fan who cares about basketball and not football I was born for this world of unpopular opinions.
Eric Musselman
Musselman is a popular pick for a lot of high-major jobs right now; he’s doing things at Arkansas that haven’t happened in a long time and he had things rolling at Nevada before he left.
The Upside
He plays fast, and I’d rather a team play at a high tempo than not.
His defenses are aggressive and force turnovers, but it’s not a one-trick pony. He will change things around depending upon the opponent.
He checks most of the boxes from the last article.
The Downside
Arkansas’ AD has already said they’re going to rework his deal after his tournament run is over - the exact quote was “I anticipate that Eric won’t be the 13th highest-paid coach in the SEC under his new agreement” - so Musselman’s availability is probably pretty disputed at best.
He has built two programs in the last decade but I haven’t seen him sustain a single one yet because he keeps moving around. Texas is ideally looking for a 10+ year hire, and Musselman has no track record in this regard. It’s entirely possible he knows when to bounce rather than deciding to stick in one spot; I don’t think it’s an accident he left Nevada when the Martin brothers graduated, and he might do the same to Arkansas…and Texas.
Nate Oats
Frankly, he should be a level lower because his buyout is large and he’s at a school willing to pay him at or near what Texas could offer. I’m putting him here because I would take him in an instant if he so much as winked at Texas, but he’s likely a pipe dream.
The Upside
He checks every box on my list.
His teams are very fun to watch.
His buyout is quite large, but with the $6m Texas saved by Shaka moving on it might be something Texas is willing to swallow.
The Downside
I’m not sure why he would leave Alabama for Texas. They’re investing a ton of money in him and his program, and there’s a good chance they’ll match nearly any offer Texas could put up.
That’s it, that’s the list. Oats would be a great hire.
Mike Boynton
I feel like this guy is almost hiding in plain sight. If we’re looking to poach a coach from the Big 12, you have to look at Boynton. I think he’s really starting to figure things out at Oklahoma State, it’s not just going and getting Cade Cunningham. That team got legitimately better as the season wore on and could be trouble next year.
The Upside
He plays a style that recruits enjoy and his recruiting classes are of a familiar type for Texas fans; there will be plenty of length and plenty of athleticism on display if he comes to Texas.
He knows the conference, understands what he’s walking into, and is willing to coach at a football-first school.
He’s on the last year of his deal and Oklahoma State lost their last coach to being cheap, so it’s possible to get him without breaking the bank unless the Cowboys AD goes big. Plus, he might be interested in getting out before the NCAA figures out their punishment for the school.
The Downside
He is in many ways similar to Shaka Smart, though there needs to be a caveat that he’s performing as well as Shaka did with several years fewer experience at the HC spot. It’s possible he’s going to exceed Shaka Smart in short order.
His ceiling is probably lower than some other coaches on this list, though again it’s still fairly early in his career.
A lot of the questions with him revolve around a similar theme: small sample size. He’s been a head coach for 4 years, and he may never get better than this season where he had the #1 draft pick on his team. It’s fair to have doubts about him.
The Secondary Options
I think if Texas gets into this group, one or more people said no and they may be scrambling. Of course I say that and the first name in this list is…
John Beilein
Until he gets a coaching job or dies, Beilein is going to get mentioned for every high-major gig.
The Upside
If he gets a good defensive mind on his staff, he can reach the final weekend.
His offenses are fun to watch, and he knows how to recruit to the style he wants to play.
The Downside
He’s the same age as Lon Kruge WHO JUST RETIRED
He’s not a long-term answer, at best he’s a 5-year guy who builds the program up before somebody else takes over. I’m not going to indulge in the head-coach-in-waiting stuff because it doesn’t really work in college basketball, and Texas can generally do better in an open search if they understand what they want and what is available.
Is he really even interested in Texas? He has a definite affinity for living and working up north.
Kevin Keatts
I like Keatts’ style, he’s a Pitino acolyte and it shows.
The Upside
His defense is a pressure defense, and his offense plays at a fast tempo.
He prioritizes offensive rebounding and forces turnovers at a fairly high rate.
The Downside
While he wins a lot in non-conference, he hasn’t been much more than a .500 coach in ACC play and he hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament much in his 4 years at NC State. It’s possible he isn’t much more than a 1st-round coach.
While NC State fans are almost as crazy as Indiana fans in their expectations so them being unhappy with their coach has to be taken with a grain of salt, it’s still there and they might be right.
The Deep Cuts
I don’t think any of these guys become the Texas coach, but if you’re casting a wide net they may start to show up on some lists.
Buzz Williams
If Shaka had gotten knocked out earlier in his career, Buzz would have gladly taken this gig and I would have gladly had him. Alas, he’s two years in at Texas A&M and that window may be closed this time around. If he were legitimately interested, he’s in the top group for me.
Tad Boyle
He’s been in the state of Colorado forever and has built a consistent program, but not a consistent top finisher. Jayhawks fans seem to semi-regularly rumble about him being a potential Bill Self replacement down the road, but he doesn’t fit the profile to me. Maybe I’m missing something.
Will Weaver
I put this name in because Dustin McComas mentioned him in an article and he was a Texas assistant in the peak Barnes years, but what little I know about him it seems like he’s more interested in the NBA life. I could not pick him out of a lineup.
No
John Calipari
I will believe he’s coming to Texas when he shows up in the locker room and not a minute before, but it would be hilarious if Kentucky ran him off and grabbed Chris Beard as his replacement. Imagine a Big 12 without Kruger & Beard and insert Calipari into the mix, it would be funny as hell and Huggins might retire on the spot.
Dana Altman
Google “Dana Altman + player’s rape case”. Texas does not need that mess coming here.
Brad Stevens
Come on, now.
I would guess there’s a 80%+ chance the next Texas coach comes from this list, and there’s a big variety in potential outcomes depending on who it is. Some I will be more enthusiastic about than others, and we can get into that when the person gets hired. And now that I’ve posted this, expect CDC to hire Mike D’Antoni or Thad Matta an hour from now.
Royal or Boynton make the most sense from an experience at their age sense. Beard seems like Weltich II, to me. If Ivey plays a pro style and can coach at that level, slam dunk.
I think you nailed it again.
With his defense-first style I think Beard is the safest and surest bet for consistent regular season success. Even though at times it is about as painful to watch as a poetry reading contest hosted by a stuttering academy. Beards team win in the regular season and produce very consistently game to game. But we’ve seen with Barnes, regular season success only means so much to Texas fans. If given a choice I think the vast majority of Texas fans would take 5th or 6th place finishes if it meant more sweet 16/elite 8 chances. That’s what Shaka was really meant to produce I think.
Now so far, Beard has had excellent success in the dance, but I believe ultimately the most consistent winners in March are the teams with the best and most consistent offenses. Yes Virginia beat Tech for the championship in 2019, but Virginia also was the first 1 to lose in the first round the year before and got dropped in the first round again this year. When your goal is turn every game into a 60-55 rock fight sometimes you end up on the wrong side of 60.
All that is why I think I’d prefer to go with Ivey. Now, maybe Ivey goes back to his Barnes roots and we start playing in your shirt man to man again. But from what I’ve heard he’s a true pace and space disciple. Plus I’ve heard from basketball guys I very much respect that Royal is absolutely the real deal as far as having a basketball mind. I also just like the idea of one of the toughest and most underrated players we’ve ever had coming here and having success versus someone who has a tendency to throw grown man-baby tantrums on the court.