This year is a bit unique for the Big 12; where several of the previous seasons featured 7-8 teams who were all vying for a tournament bid with not a lot of daylight between them, the ‘21-’22 season is more top-heavy than the conference has been in awhile. Perhaps the COVID year robbed the Big 12 of a similar tournament situation where Kansas and Baylor were well ahead of the pack, before that you probably have to go back to the Chaminade year - which I do not recommend doing - to find a Big 12 where there was such a clear demarcation of the top tier a lower second tier, and some also-rans who teams beat up on. It has been awhile since the Big 12 had reasonably clear weak links, it’s a departure from most of the last decade where there were no off nights. This makes it more difficult for the top teams to distinguish themselves from their peers. I’m going to list best case/worst case for each team, but this should probably come with the caveat of best/worst “realistic” case because it’s hard to anticipate, say a player coming down with leukemia in the middle of a season. Though I guess at this point I just assume that’s going to happen to Texas. This seems like a year where the Big 12 has three high-seed tournament teams, three more teams who spend at least a little time on the bubble, and three teams that aren’t really in the discussion at any point. If you’re keeping count, that means yes there is a team I’m leaving out because they are still an enigma to me. Congrats to perennial edge case, West Virginia. If I had to guess right now, given Oklahoma State was just banned from postseason play I would probably err on the side of the Big 12 getting five teams into the tournament. I can envision an outcome where only five make it (Tech, OU, & WVU falter) and an outcome where 6 make it (WVU outperforms), but five feels most likely.
The Tiers
(teams listed alphabetically in each tier)
Tier 1
Kansas Jayhawks
You may or may not have been paying attention what with all the Texas transfer headlines, but the Jayhawks’ recruiting issues are decidedly over. They’re landing top recruits, they’re landing top transfers, and this squad is deadly from just about every angle. The “Jayhawks are vulnerable” window has closed, possibly for good if you’re a Texas or Oklahoma fan. Their one weakness was a guard who could create and facilitate, and that was emphatically answered by snagging Remy Martin in the transfer portal. The Jayhawks should be the favorites for the Big 12 title for a couple of reasons:
They’re really good again
The Phog will be packed again
The Phog is once again going to be an enormous home court advantage, and the math has yet again tilted back in the favor of Kansas because there are few programs who can reliably say they will go 7-2 or better in conference play at home. It’s a good thing Texas kicked the shit out of them in Lawrence last year because this year Texas goes to the Phog on Senior Night, which Kansas hasn’t lost in 38 years. It sounds like a very random stat, but Baylor’s only conference loss last year happened in Lawrence on Senior Night. Beware the Phog on Senior Night, especially against a Kansas squad which is probably fighting for a 1-seed.
With Martin, Jalen Wilson, Agbaji, and McCormack along with a cadre of capable backups, I have a hard time seeing this team finishing worse than second in the Big 12 this season. Remy Martin is maybe the only guard in the Big 12 who can outshine Marcus Carr (I’ll get to the other shortly) and he’s surrounded by a ton of older talent working a scheme that Bill Self knows well. They should be the conference favorites until proven otherwise, and they’re legitimate national championship contenders.
Best case conference finish: 1st
Worst case conference finish: 2nd
Baylor Bears
It pains me to say this, but the reigning national champions - okay, it also pains me to say that - might be a slight bit underrated by Big 12 fans this year? People are focusing on what they lost in Butler, Mitchell, Teague, and Vital, which is admittedly substantial, but James Akinjo getting a NCAA waiver is a major coup for a Waco squad which otherwise is probably a step below Kansas and Texas. Pair Akinjo with Matthew Mayer - a player who has been on more breakout lists than Florida COVID ICU wards this summer - along with Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua taking over the Mark Vital/Rico Gathers role of “next Dallas Cowboys practice squad tight end”, Adam Flagler sniping from deep, and LJ Cryer getting more run & this team should be ranked in or near the top ten to start the season. People are going to push them down a bit because Langston Love tore his ACL - Texas and Baylor are close enough in my view it might be enough to nudge Texas ahead in the conference predictions - but I don’t think he’s going to massively impact their season outlook. They may not be in the running to run the table, but they will beat a lot of teams and are experienced in all the right areas. Scott Drew is now as good at building rosters as he is at suffocating dogs in his garage, which is scary because he is really good at suffocating dogs in his garage. It’s almost clinical at this point, an assembly line of snuffed out childrens’ dreams being carted to the recycling bin. He’s a less-charming Dexter is what I’m saying.
Anyway Baylor should be good.
Best case conference finish: 1st
Worst case conference finish: 4th
Texas Longhorns
On paper, Texas has the talent to win the conference. Marcus Carr and Tre’ Mitchell should be in the hunt for first-team all-conference honors, there is depth at every position, and with Chris Beard as the coach many people expect Texas to ascend to its final form as a national title contender. With the makeup of the Big 12 this season, even if the offense is terrible Texas can probably sleepwalk its way to a top-half of the conference finish. The expectation from fans is that changing out the head coach will be the marginal gain that propels Texas to the next level, and Beard’s staff is being paid like they’re expected not just to contend for conference titles but to win them outright. I am in full agreement with everyone that the floor for Shaka’s seasons was substantially lower than Beard’s seasons will be (I would be stunned if Texas ever ended up with a losing record during Beard’s tenure, especially with his love of loading up on easy non-con wins), and that in and of itself has substantial value. But is the difference between the two actually that large when it comes to the team’s ceiling?
For the remainder of Texas’ time in the Big 12, Kansas and Baylor are going to be the teams the Longhorns will battle for conference titles. The road to the title goes through Lawrence and/or Waco, and it is unlikely to change without Texas forcing a detour through Austin in the next 1-2 years. So, pop quiz, who had a better record against Kansas & Baylor the last 5 seasons: Chris Beard or Shaka Smart? I’ll give you a moment to mull it over:
It’s a trick question, the answer is neither; both Shaka and Beard were 5-15 against Kansas & Baylor. Shaka was 3-8 vs Kansas & 2-7 vs Baylor, Beard was 2-8 vs Kansas & 3-7 vs Baylor. Moreover, Beard is currently on an 8-game losing streak against these two teams; he hasn’t beaten either since the ‘18-’19 season. Let’s put it another way, Beard’s Big 12 record the last 5 seasons is 50-44 (.531) to Shaka’s 46-46 (.500). Over that same run Bill Self is 76-22 (.776) and Scott Drew is 59-32 (.648). For Texas, Beard’s record is an improvement of roughly 4 games over 5 seasons, but consider that includes him being 8-5 vs Shaka who is no longer in the conference. Their respective Big 12 records without the head-to-head: Beard 42-39, Shaka 41-38. Here’s a full breakdown of their records versus conference opponents (head-to-head excluded, as noted above Beard won those 8-5) the last five seasons:
This is not entirely apples-to-apples, and there are absolutely limits to its applicability; Beard improved Tech more from the previous administration than Shaka did from Barnes, Beard played better defense than Shaka most of these years, and Beard made hay in March Madness in a way Shaka hadn’t since his VCU days. These are all valid criticisms of what I’ve mentioned above. That said, there are other questions in my mind about what kind of strategic advantage Beard has these days; when he and Adams brought the no-middle defense to bear it was a unique strategy to counteract the ball-screen offenses of the Big 12, now half the conference is running some flavor of no-middle and the big boys (Kansas and Baylor) are arguably better at it than Tech was last season. Plus, Adams is now on the Tech bench, and Porter Moser is prowling the Oklahoma sideline as perhaps the best defensive mind in the conference. If Beard’s defense is his calling card and he’s now the fourth or fifth-best defensive coach in the Big 12 behind some combination of Self, Moser, Adams, & perhaps Weber, what is he doing to gain an advantage? You’re not going to out-talent Kansas most years, and Baylor isn’t far behind. He needs a second trick or his Texas tenure will be a disappointment.
You ask why I’m skeptical Beard is going to start rolling off conference titles, the answer is that he hasn’t to date been appreciably better against the top Big 12 teams than the guy he replaced. He has an opportunity to improve his record against both programs while he’s at Texas, but unless he gets better at out-gunning Self & Drew tactically the Longhorns are facing an uphill battle for their remaining couple of seasons in this conference. It’s not like he’s a whiz at the conference tournament either, he has exactly one more Big 12 tournament win than you or I do; unless he suddenly decides to improve on his 1-4 lifetime Big 12 tournament record that path to hanging banners is arguably even more unlikely.
Here’s the thing: at the end of the day Beard has raised the floor at Texas in any given season. They’re unlikely to finish in the bottom third of the Big 12 while he’s around, and that’s valuable. But Texas didn’t hire him to raise the floor, he’s getting paid to raise the ceiling. Whether he can reliably do that is still an open question in my mind. Is he the coach who made an Elite Eight and a title game appearance in two years, or is he the coach who spent the last two seasons getting caught by Kansas & Baylor and hovered just on the right side of the tournament bubble? Is he peak-era Barnes or late-era Barnes? We will eventually find out. I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle, which means Texas fans will get teams that finish in the top half of the conference but still may fall short of matching the level Kansas and Baylor have attained. Is a program that averages third or fourth in the conference and a R32 March Madness appearance each year enough for the burnt orange faithful? I have my doubts Texas fans will be happy without regular trips to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but we’ll cross that bridge if/when we come to it.
As for this year, on talent alone Texas is a top-three Big 12 team - though I would describe this team as filled with very good college players rather than the elite NBA prospects you’ve seen on previous teams or at some other programs - and they very well could take the conference race down to the final game of the season. It’s also possible the parts don’t fit together as well as we hope and/or the schemes don’t optimize the roster to make that run. For Texas to contend this season, they need to go 5-1 or better against ISU/KSU/TCU, put up at least 6 wins against OU/OSU/Tech/WVU, and try to split the four Baylor & Kansas games. That gets them to 13-5 which will put them in the ballpark of first place as long as Kansas isn’t Kansasing the conference. Over the last 6 seasons, 13-5 would produce the following conference standings: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st(t), 2nd, 2nd(t). I think most of us would take that result this season because it probably puts Texas in line for a protected seed in the tourney, even if it doesn’t net a conference banner.
Best case conference finish: 1st
Worst case conference finish: 5th
Tier 2
Texas Tech Red Raiders
There aren’t a ton of really mean atmospheres left in college sports; with the rise in TV viewing and the increasing nationalization of D-I athletics plus ticket prices going up to the point ‘average fans’ are buying mini-plans instead of season tickets at a lot of venues it means that the rabid fanbases are in many places marginally less rabid than they used to be. That said, there are still unique opportunities available to relish. I am seriously considering burning what few PTO days I have left for 2022 to go to a Tuesday night game in Lubbock just so I can experience the visceral hatred Red Raiders fans have for Chris Beard on his first return to the arena. It’s possible I will never feel a barn of hate like that again in my life, and the 120 seconds surrounding Chris Beard’s name being mentioned in the pregame introductions may be some of the purest emotion a person can feel from tens of thousands of people without having to drink Kool-Aid shortly thereafter.
Mark Adams was the defensive wizard behind Beard’s no-middle style; he did not invent it and he doesn’t have a monopoly on its secrets, but he knows it better than most and he is taking his shot at continuing the Beard Tech days by preaching that defense and the intricacies therein. We don’t yet know what kind of offense he will run - he brought in Barret Peery who is known for creating high-tempo offenses - but chances are it will heavily feature Terrence Shannon, Kevin Obanor, and Bryson Williams (who Texas went after as his former coach Rodney Terry spoke highly of him) along with a slew of JUCO transfers Adams has brought in to deal with the massive turnover from Beard leaving town. Adams is reeling in some pretty solid recruits - I get the sense jilted Tech alums are, uhh inserting their influence in getting players to Lubbock - so it is a bit early to declare Tech will recede from its position as a worthy conference foe. I think Obanor and Shannon will help Tech in its transition to an Adams Era, and I do think they have the pieces to surprise some people. This feels like a potential fringe top-25 squad which could sneak up into third if everything clicks and Baylor or Texas falters.
Best case conference finish: 3rd
Worst case conference finish: 6th
Oklahoma State Cowboys
I’m not going to say the Cowboys won’t miss Cade Cunningham because he was a big reason for their success last season, but they’re still full of quality talent. The Boone brothers are going to cause matchup issues for most teams, Avery Anderson is one of the better guards in the conference, and they landed a pair of former 5-star trasnfers in Bryce Thompson (Kansas) and Mousa Cisse (Memphis). This will be one of the most talented rosters in the Big 12. They are one of the only teams in the Big 12 whose offense will be less of a question mark than their defense, and given Boynton’s history the defense will probably be fine. This is a deep squad, I haven’t even mentioned Rondel Walker or Isaac Likekele yet. Maybe I’m too high on this team - they don’t seem to be getting much love from preseason voters - but their ceiling feels like it’s a solidly-in-the-tournament team with a chance to make the second weekend. You know, if they were eligible. It’s possible they don’t reach this level since they don’t have a March Madness to play for any more, though Boynton coaxed some pretty high level play out of the team last year while they were all under the gun as well.
Best case conference finish: 3rd
Worst case conference finish: 6th
Tier 3
I think I should pause for a moment and say that the teams in Tier 3 aren’t teams that I think are definitely worse than Tier 2, rather they’re teams I have bigger unanswered questions about. I could absolutely see either or both of these teams end up as good or better than the two teams above them, but I’m being cautious about my projections until I have better data. If recent patterns hold true to form 4th-7th place in the Big 12 is going to be a dogfight, where a couple of shots falling (or not) will be the difference between playing the first day of the conference tournament (or not).
Oklahoma Sooners
This off-season, a new coach came to a Big 12 power promoting tough defense, a new direction, and a renewed dedication to team culture. (Also Chris Beard came to Texas.) Porter Moser left Loyola-Chicago and Sister Jean to head to the state time forgot. I would like to pretend that Moser had massive culture shock moving to Norman, but he’s been an assistant at Texas A&M and was the head coach at Arkansas Little-Rock so he’s been exposed to some…let’s say less than progressive fanbases. Moser knows the score in Norman, and he’s going to do what he does best: defend. His defense is a hybrid of several different systems; there are pieces of a no-middle defense, pieces of Yaklich’s late-help defense, and a litany of other characteristics that make this defensive system one on which you cannot slap an easy label. His defenses do some unusual things like never helping off a corner shooter (both strong side and weak side) and he modifies his defense to fit the opponent better than most coaches. There may be a bit of a learning curve moving to a power conference - his preference for running underneath screens might get him burned against the better shooters he faces in the Big 12, as an example - but it’s possible that of all the coaches in the Big 12, Oklahoma got the best defensive mind. Oklahoma fans are in for their own adjustment, going from one of the better offensive minds to a defense-first coach in his first season who plays just barely faster than Tony Bennett. Trae Young was fun, but OU faithful are about to get some games where the winning score might be lower than Young’s 48 points against OSU.
Side note: I’d like to pat myself on the back for spending a piece of last year’s preview openly wondering if Kruger was getting bored at Oklahoma and ready to head elsewhere. Don’t pay attention to the part where it talked about him taking over at Kansas State, Anonymous hacked my account and added that bit. (Their trickery knows no bounds!)
Elijah Harkless may be the lynchpin to this whole thing, his defensive prowess could power the Sooners to some significant upsets along the way. He has the athleticism to defend multiple positions, he can lock down opposing guards, and Moser is probably going to make him a feature of the defensive system. With that said, I’m still unsure how the offense is going to do in Norman. Being a lockdown defense is great and can keep you in games, but without a coherent offensive system the Sooners may have a limited ceiling this year. That’s not to say Moser can’t come up with an offense, it’s just very much a TBD for me until I can see what they’re doing with Harkless, Umoja Gibson, Kansas-tormentor Tanner Groves, and the rest. This may very well be a transitional year as Moser and his staff build their program, which is why the range for the Sooners is as wide as it is.
Best case conference finish: 4th
Worst case conference finish: 8th
West Virginia Mountaineers
There are few coaches I enjoy watching more than Huggins. His teams change every year, he molds the system to fit the talent - Press Virginia was basically just the Jevon Carter defense, they haven’t done it since he left - and he mines for talent in places many do not which is how he ends up with a guy like Sean McNeil, a JUCO transfer who looks like he was carved out of the carcass of a minor Quentin Tarantino character, and Pauly Paulicap, which is the guy’s real name and not him being entered into witness protection by the guy who came up with Han Solo. It’s also why my projections for his teams are all over the map every preseason. The Mountaineers are going to have to find a way to fill in all of the gaps Deuce McBride left behind when he went pro (if he stayed, I would have put the team at or above Tech) and the flexibility Derek Culver allowed on defense. The team will rebound because it’s a Huggins team, and if Jalen Bridges & McNeil can continue their outside shooting this team will score. See, I’m already talking myself into moving them up a tier. One of OU/OSU/Tech/WVU is going to end up 7th in this conference, and they’ll either be a bubble team or murder the NIT field. I kinda don’t think it will be WVU, but I need more data.
Best case conference finish: 4th
Worst case conference finish: 7th
Tier 4
TCU Horned Frogs
This team will score, that much I believe. Mike Miles, Micah Peavy, and Francisco Farabello will get buckets under Jamie Dixon; what I’m not sure of is if they’ll stop their opponents on the other end. Dixon’s teams aren’t terrible defensively, but they’re usually a step below the competition and relative to the defensive minds in this conference now Dixon is…lacking. Add onto that they were a poor rebounding team even with Kevin Samuel, how are they going to rebound without Kevin Samuel? Can Eddie Lampkin and Souleymane Doubia replace the rebounding capabilities of Samuel? Can they defend as well as Samuel? If not, the interior of TCU’s defense is going to be a clear negative. I don’t see this as a bubble team unless they kick it into an extremely high gear offensively and/or put up even a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 defense.
Is Jamie Dixon on the hot seat? I don’t get that sense from TCU people, but he’s only been to the NCAA Tournament one time in 4 possible trips and he wasn’t on the path for a berth in the COVID year either. Perhaps TCU fans are okay with basketball being reasonably entertaining after decades of being a punchline, which is fine and a level of historical perspective I don’t see from *stares into the abyss* some other fanbases.
Best case conference finish: 6th
Worst case conference finish: 9th
Tier 5
Kansas State Wildcats
“This has to be the year Bruce Weber finally gets fired” I type onto a screen three months before Kansas State runs off an improbable 10-8 conference record and squeezes into the NCAA tourney field as a 10-seed, then makes a run to the Elite Eight thanks to massive upsets of the 2 & 3-seeds, allowing them to play the 14 & 15-seeds in the R32 & Sweet Sixteen, thus securing Bruce Weber another contract extension which he will largely squander. Bruce Weber is Loki to Wildcats basketball fans; this year might finally be the year they get to unshackle themselves, but that guy has an incredible knack for pulling things together just enough to earn an extension from the Manhattan powers and send their fans into four more years of intermittent apathy. This team does not look good on paper, and unless Nijel Pack and/or Mark Smith morph into Cade Cunningham the Wildcats are probably going to get smacked around by a number of teams.
Best case conference finish: 8th
Worst case conference finish: 10th
Iowa State Cyclones
I originally had them in tier 4, but news broke recently that TJ Otzelberger dismissed former 5-star recruit Xavier Foster over sexual assault allegations plus former 4-star recruit Blake Hinson left the team and that brings a roster already low on high-quality Big 12 talent even closer to the bottom of the conference. Tristan Enaruna and Tyrese Hunter are going to have to work their asses off to drag this team out of the Big 12 cellar. I guess in a way, it’s mildly comforting for Iowa State fans to start the season without much hope; if you start the year expecting to be terrible and end up semi-competitive, it feels like a nice surprise. That sounds better than the near-perennial Texas overhype leading to inevitable disappointment.
It feels like the Cyclones AD got rid of Prohm and said “get me somebody who reminds me of a homeless version of Fred Hoiberg”. Maybe Otzelberger will flourish in Ames, if he can harness the magic he found at South Dakota State then they could be onto something. This coaching hire felt like a reach though and I’m skeptical it pans out, which sucks because Iowa State fans deserve a team they can rally around. They’re some of the best basketball fans on the planet and they should have a coach who lets them boo in celebration as much as they boo in defeat.
Best case conference finish: 8th
Worst case conference finish: 10th
My Dumb Conference Prediction
Am I confident in these predictions? Reader, I am not. Baylor and Texas are in a perpetual dance for 2nd, I’ve had West Virginia as high as 5th, Oklahoma State as low as 5th, Oklahoma has been in more positions than most of their state thinks should be legal in a bedroom, and I’m constantly tempted to flip Iowa State & Kansas State. Oklahoma could end up in any one of 5 spots on this chart and I would nod along quietly. The safest money is Kansas winning the conference, Texas & Baylor finishing behind them in some order, then 4th-7th being a gagglefuck of flawed teams who scout their opponents well, and TCU being off on an 8th-place island while Iowa State & Kansas State duke it out for the rights to not be in the cellar.
Put it another way:
Kansas
Texas/Baylor
*gap*
OU/OSU/Tech/WVU
*gap*
TCU
*gap*
ISU/KSU
Clear as mud, right?
Texas’ conference schedule
For those of you new to the site: expect a weekly recap to come out (usually on Sundays) that discusses the games played once the season is rolling, which means the next piece is likely landing in your inboxes on or around Nov 14th.
BWG’s writing tunes provided by Tyler Johnston.
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Did you watch Iowa State against Memphis and/or Xavier? If you hear from JH, he might have some insight into how good Xavier is and whether ISU is for real. I did not see either game. I am now in Union Station Chicago on my way back to Austin, after a holiday hoops drought for me.
Thanks again for this one.
I forgot that Tanner Groves had transferred in to OU but recalled that their previous [medium] big white guy had transferred out. If Lon were still there would you have rated OU the same?