The first week of the season is over and Texas fans got equal doses of potential and reality within; the Longhorns are good enough to run away from a bad team but not yet good enough to compete with the big boys. Let’s get into it, and for our beleaguered football fans I promise my only mentions of *ear muffs* K-A-N-S-A-S will be basketball references.
Micro Level, Houston Baptist (W, 92-48)
Jase Febres
Febres is a primary reason Texas wasn’t trailing halfway through the first half of this game; it was 18-15 Texas with about 10:30 left and HBU had the ball with a chance to tie, without Febres’ early threes this game stays dicey for longer than anyone realistically should have expected. More on him later.
Courtney Ramey
Against bad teams, Texas only needs a couple players on the roster to shine to pull out a win. Ramey was one of the couple, and his timely threes helped keep Texas from teetering early as well as put space between Texas and HBU on the Longhorns’ first half run. I’m a little surprised teams are letting him drive right with the sheer volume of tape on hand, but some of that is him being good enough to still get to his right hand when other teams know it’s coming. He’s been good this season.
Baseline Drives
If Houston Baptist is getting to the rim via baseline against your no-middle scheme, you don’t really have one of the main underpinnings of a no-middle scheme. It seemed like Tre’ Mitchell (among others) was trying to soft-trap guards at the free throw line extended then recover back to his man, though he was recovering way too early which effectively negated the trap. Guards were using a moment of hesitation on the dribble to watch Mitchell escape back to his man, leaving a wide-open path to the rim where there was once a guy in his way. If half the trap leaves before the player stops dribbling, it’s not a trap, it’s a speed bump. It got better in the second half, but it’s still something to watch. If Texas isn’t reliably shutting off the baseline, we’re in trouble.
The Student Section
Credit where it’s due, the students showed up better than I expected. They didn’t sell their section out, but it seems like an easy win for CDC & Beard to give the students a pizza party regardless. CDC could use the good publicity right about now, all things considered.
(I didn’t say their name!)
Micro Level, Gonzaga (L, 86-74)
I Missed Nina Kraviz For This
I was supposed to go see Nina Kraviz this weekend; it was her first time in Dallas and was going to be my first time out at a show since the pandemic began, I bought a ticket weeks ago. A few days ago it dawned on me that the Gonzaga game was going to overlap with the show, and I decided that if Texas was getting beat down at halftime I would head out to the club and catch the second half later. Well, it was 47-27 at half…but I’m already on my couch in comfy clothes, it’s 10:30p, the club is 45 minutes away, yada yada yada I stayed home. 22-year-old me is very disappointed in current-day me.
On the bright(?) side, I found out from a friend that Kraviz’ plane was delayed 6 hours and she didn’t start playing until 1:30am. I am not young enough for impromptu 4am nights any more; if I’m going to be out until 4am, I’m planning out a nap & Red Bull schedule that starts like 12 hours beforehand & includes a hydration strategy. That would have been rough, this recap might have made it out on Monday.
That’s What a Final Four Contender Looks Like
Texas is a good team; they have a number of good pieces, and they might end up being a team which makes noise in March. But Gonzaga is legit; they can kill you in so many ways, and their talent level is well above Texas. Chet Holmgren is going to be either the first or second pick in the NBA Draft, scored two points, and this game was still never in doubt. I know Texas won the transfer wars, and that’s not nothing, but there’s a difference between getting several talented transfers and the shit Mark Few is rolling out. There were a couple dozen NBA scouts in attendance and they were mainly there to watch Gonzaga players. Texas is talented, but Gonzaga is loaded. It’s no shame losing to Gonzaga - literally one team in the past 21 months has beaten them - so this doesn’t hurt so much as provide a good measuring stick until later. If Gonzaga hadn’t gotten bored in the second half and started playing with its food, this is probably a 20+ point loss. Credit to Texas for fighting until nearly the end, but they weren’t really the ones deciding the final margin. It was 18 points when the walk-ons came in.
Chris Beard or: How I Learned to Love Not Doubling a Dominant Post Presence
How many times are you going to watch Drew Timme cook your post players before you start sending help? If you’re Chris Beard, the answer is somewhere around a baker’s dozen. It’s bad enough that defensive guru Chris Beard wasn’t getting his players to tag a rolling Drew Timme through most of the first half, but even when they did he still setup shop in the paint and Texas wasn’t sending help until far too late in the game. I’d have to go back and watch the game to check for sure, but Timme was nearing 20 points before I saw the first double-team (which again, was far too late when it came). They tried a fucking 2-3 zone as much as they tried doubling the guy who is lighting your entire team on fire. Maybe Beard was worried about the shooters surrounding Timme which, fine, but at a certain point you have to put out the fire in your kitchen before you worry about water damage. It was baffling; Texas as a team made two more two-point shots than Drew Timme. Where are your amazing halftime adjustments? I mean other than throwing Brock Cunningham at Timme, which - as the preeminent Cunningham fan on the internet - can I just say lolllll whut.
On another note, Beard said this shit with a straight face:
I about threw my phone when I saw this quote. When he starts scheduling tough teams, I’ll give him credit for it; until then, I see you.
Timmy Allen
In the first half Allen got cooked by Timme so often he was less brisket than burnt ends. In the second half, Allen still had defensive issues but his offense picked up. Letting him bring the ball up and go straight at bigger defenders is something he does well, and they let him get after it. He snagged the ball off missed shots, got out in transition and was able to push pace which opened up good looks for his teammates. It’s almost as if - and I’m just thinking out loud here - a deep team full of talented players can prosper when they get the ball in the open court and start to run.
In completely unrelated news, Texas is in the bottom 10 nationally in adjusted tempo.
Allen is at his best near the basket, and four three-point attempts from him is a couple too many. Gonzaga was conceding that shot to deal with other things and Allen hit a couple, so good for him, but that’s not the shot Texas wants or needs from a career 30% three-point shooter.
Marcus Carr
Carr still seems to be finding his way a bit, which is normal this early but a problem if it continues. He’s somehow simultaneously not hunting his shot and also being inefficient with his shots; there were a couple high-difficulty shots tonight that were understandable as Texas was trying to claw its way back from a massive deficit against a better team, but it’s almost as if he’s being too deferential for large stretches of the game. Texas needs Carr to be a maestro from the point, and if he’s not in rhythm with the rest of the team the offense will not hum even a little bit. Ideally, Carr scores 11 points on 8-10 shots instead of 13, and while his 23.5 assist rate is good his 21.2 turnover rate needs to be lower. I don’t expect him to be Monte Morris reincarnated - though that would be awesome - but it’s something to work on as the season progresses.
Andrew Jones
Anybody else notice how little run Jones got in the second half? I don’t have a box score broken down by half as I write this, but I think Devin Askew got more time on the court in the second half than AJ1. Jones isn’t playing high-level defense yet and his shot either wasn’t falling or wasn’t taken which is the primary reason he’s on the floor. If Jones isn’t going to get buckets his negatives elsewhere become more pronounced; he had 5 rebounds which helps, but otherwise was pretty close to invisible.
The Gonzaga Student Section
That student section is rocking, and hopefully the Moody layout will give Texas students a chance to try to be that raucous/effective in creating an atmosphere.
Macro Level
An Expectations Adjustment
Texas fans have been understandably hyped about everything in the offseason, from the hires to the transfers, etc., but the first test for Texas showcased what this team is not (yet). Texas as currently constituted is not a top-five or a Final Four team, and fans needed to see as much. When Dylan Disu gets back into the lineup and Texas has more time to get its rotations/minutes allocations in line, the ceiling could be quite high, but they are not there yet. (They may never get there, but we’ll deal with that whenever the season ends.) This game was a dose of reality, and unfortunately due to the schedule there will be precious few chances prior to Big 12 play to see if or how the team is really progressing. Stanford lost to Santa Clara on Friday and might be closer to the PAC-12 basement than March Madness, so the Seton Hall game on December 9th may be the only other test for this team prior to West Virginia. (On the other end of the spectrum, if Stanford gives Texas a test then alarm bells should be ringing throughout Burnt Orange fandom.) There’s going to be a lot of inferences and speculation with this squad for the next 6 weeks.
Defensive Woes
Texas simply isn’t sound defensively yet; it doesn’t really matter against the Houston Baptists of the world, where Texas being flat-out bigger and faster than the opponent means their mistakes can be covered up through athleticism and reach, but against Gonzaga they got repeatedly exposed. This isn’t even really a no-middle defense in a functional sense, if it were then Drew Timme wouldn’t have spent most of the night with both feet in the paint and the Gonzaga guards wouldn’t have been in the lane constantly. (Hell, even Houston Baptist was getting to the rim on these guards for significant stretches.) There are fundamental defensive errors happening over and over by pretty much anyone other than Courtney Ramey and the aggression on defense isn’t anywhere near where it needs to be. Texas needs to start playing to its potential on the defensive end or this season is going to be a real roller coaster. Beard hangs his hat on defense and thus far he’s still looking for the coat-hook on the wall; they may yet find it, but early returns are worrisome.
Courtney Ramey
If there is one player who is doing his part more than any other, it’s Ramey. He’s playing the defense Beard wants, he’s getting to the rim more than any other guard, and he’s been a calming influence in the game. I hesitate to think where this team would be if Ramey had transferred.
Jase Febres
Febres is quietly emerging as a serious threat to take somebody’s starting spot; his defense is better than Andrew Jones, his rebounding (particularly offensive rebounding) is better than most of the backcourt, and his offensive spark is one of the few that has been consistent through the first week of the season, and Beard appears to be relying on him more and more as these games go on. Febres played 27 minutes against Gonzaga, nearly as many as Jones & Christian Bishop combined. All of this is still very much in flux - and with the upcoming gaggle of terrible teams minutes are going to be weird for awhile - but Febres might already be the sixth man and soon to take a starting spot, or at least get the minutes equivalent a starting spot.
Talent Level Disparities
Tim has said on the podcast multiple times that this team is full of really good players who are here because they’re not good enough to be in the NBA, which is accurate. There are worse ways to build a roster and the talent on this team is good enough on paper to beat most teams, but the limits of this type of roster are seen when running up against teams with actual NBA-level talents. Gonzaga is an extreme example of this, but Kansas and Baylor both have multiple potential draft picks on their squads. Texas has…one, who isn’t even playing right now. If Beard is trying to win titles, his recruiting strategy likely needs to be modified to suit. Arterio Morris is probably a good start in this regard, hopefully it is a sign of things to come.
Texas got its first and possibly hardest test of the season & came up short; it isn’t really a surprise, Gonzaga is the best program in the country to not have a title and has been to 6 straight Sweet 16s, if you’re looking for a yardstick they are arguably the best one to use. That said, Texas came up about a foot short. Now we wait another month until the next test.
Upcoming Games:
THE ABE LEMONS CLASSIC, Y’ALL WHEEEEEEE!
Wednesday, November 17th: vs Northern Colorado 7:30 PM CT (LHN)
Saturday, November 20th: vs San Jose State 5 PM CT (LHN)
Please remember to check out Pretend We’re Football and/or our Twitter account. My next recap will come out after San Jose State. Also, I have a Patreon if you want to tip me for telling you I was right about something.
Writing tunes provided by Nina Kraviz, who I missed in town to watch this drilling.
-Agreed completely on Febres. If he keeps playing at this rate and stays healthy it's going to be hard to keep him off the floor.
-Turnovers felt really bad during the Gonzaga game. Passing has to tighten up, at least when they play better opponents again.
-You tell me pre-game Holmgren has 2 pts like you mentioned, but also only 5 boards, 2 blocks, and 4 fouls, I would've been much more excited about our prospects. Like you said, that may be more of a comment on just how good Gonzaga is.
-It still feels like the individual players are feeling themselves out (on both sides of the court), but don't feel anywhere close a complete unit yet, which is okay at this stage. On-court chemistry still feels like a huge unknown that I wouldn't expect to be at a high level at this stage given all the new faces. But I'm glad you brought up Ramey. I know he gets the profile as a hot head, but he also holds the other players accountable as much as anyone on the court. There was a quick replay after Allen gave a lackluster double to Timme (and Timme easily waltzed by for a bucket) and it looks like Ramey was giving Allen a quick piece of his mind on that performance before running back. I'm not sure what his stat line will ultimately look like game to game, but good teams really need a guy like that on the roster and could help this team build on the court (or he oversteps and we get a shouting match like last year?).
Did Texas recruit Will Baker instead of offering Timme?
Oh well, hindsight and all that.