Shooting From the Corner: Kansas State & Oklahoma State (1-1)
Texas continues to play with fire, get burned
This was a week where Texas needed to go 2-0 and finished 1-1, again narrowing their window for tournament opportunities. Bracketologists are starting to put them on the dreaded 8/9 line, all but guaranteeing the Longhorns a brief stay at their regional site unless a new UMBC manifests another historic upset. That said, there were some signs of improvement among the ever-present turnovers and scoring droughts. It was a mixed bag, Mrs. Lincoln; can we offer you a $5 coupon to the next showing?
Micro Level, Kansas State (L, 66-65)
Marcus Carr & A Fleeting Moment of Beard Adjustment
Texas got the kind of game from Carr fans have been expecting all season, and for large portions of the game he was hitting tough shots and getting to the line like a top transfer guard should. I noticed even Beard finally went away from his beloved motion sets because Carr was so hot, but it took him until the U8 timeout of the second half before he started running two-man games and/or putting Carr in ISO situations. Then they went away from it, for reasons. Kansas State started putting Selton Miguel on Carr and Miguel’s length bothered Carr enough that it slowed him down some, but Carr was getting past him and if Beard didn’t continue to put them in a horns set where the KSU bigs could help block the paint off then I’m fairly certain Carr keeps scoring. Stop being cute and give the dude who is hotter than a Jon Rothstein PS5 some space, man.
More Droughts
Christian Bishop scored a bucket with 6:46 left in the first half to go up 24-17. Texas did not hit another shot until there were 5 seconds left in the half, though Texas still had the lead because they made free throws in the interim. That’s a 6:41 FG drought against a team that is challenging for the conference basement, and it runs to nearly 10 minutes if you consider they didn’t hit another FG until the 17:07 mark of the second half. One bucket in 9.5 minutes; people are going to focus on Timmy Allen missing those late free throws but it’s worth considering just how far down Texas would have been if they didn’t hit a ton of free throws along the way. Speaking of, Timmy Allen hit a shot with 3:32 left in the game; it was the last points Texas scored. Teams are holding Texas’ offense in check for stretches, and I don’t know if it’s going to get better the rest of the way.
Low-Post Seals
One thing that drives me nuts about this team is that Texas doesn’t seem to really care about having bigs seal off their man to help guards get to the rim. Look at this still from late in the game when Andrew Jones is driving:
Bishop had post position established a moment earlier and could have kept the KSU defender from getting in the way by sealing off his man, but instead as Jones is driving he tries to vacate the lane and it leaves Jones walled off where he has to try for a contested fallaway jumper.
Now look at what Kansas State did in a similar situation earlier in the game:
The KSU big has Carr walled off and Mark Smith is going to blow by Mitchell for a finger roll layup. It’s easier for Bradford to do this to Carr, but he would have also had Mitchell sealed off if the switch never happens. This isn’t something that Texas can’t do in a motion offense, but Texas doesn’t really do this much at all. Next time you see a point guard getting to the rim on Texas, watch and see if their big is getting the Texas big stuck in the paint. It happens regularly on defense and it’s a problem, but it’s also something I wish Texas would employ on the offensive end to help guys like Ramey and Carr get some action at the rim. Maybe Andrew Jones would complete a layup if Bishop/Disu/Mitchell kept their man planted on the wrong side of the lane line.
Micro Level, Oklahoma State (W, 56-51)
The Most Important 9 Minutes of the Season?
Texas gave up a dunk to Moncrieffe with 9:33 left to make it a 37-36 game, and despite the Cowboys only making three field goals in the first 10.5 minutes of the second half it was a one-point contest. If Texas doesn’t execute well enough the next 9:33, they risk falling to 3-4 in conference play with an away game against TCU looming before the schedule really ramps up in difficulty. A loss against the Cowboys might have killed any chance of Texas being above .500 again this season in conference play, and subsequently made their March Madness hopes increasingly dim. With all of this and the pressure of knowing they shit the bed late against Kansas State, they could have folded. They didn’t, and it’s one of the few signs this season that Texas might be able to put away teams on its level. It’s still just one data point among others that give me more pause than this gives me hope, but this is the kind of thing they need to do to make the tournament. Doing it once is one more than none, now they need to do it a second time. They will have their chances.
The Turnover Losing Streak Was Finally Broken
This is the first game in conference play where Texas handily lost the turnover battle and still won the game. Texas turned the ball over on 30.3% of their possessions (22.7% for OSU) and still managed to come up with the win, which is heartwarming in the same way a kid raising money for their mom’s heart surgery by selling lemonade is heartwarming as long as you don’t think about the larger issue of why six-year-olds would have to help a parent pay for healthcare. I suspect if Oklahoma State had Bryce Williams available the correlation might have strengthened instead of weakening, but he was in a boot and that likely proved to be the difference.
The Limits of Tape Delay
If you started watching the game when the Tech/WVU game ended on ESPN2, you saw a game where Oklahoma State was up 14-13 at the under-8 timeout and might have thought to yourself “okay, close game, not bad, why is the crowd so quiet?”. Then ESPN showed the graphic that Texas started on a 13-0 run and then put up a bagel for nearly 10 minutes.
I should know better than to think I can watch a game on tape delay if West Virginia is the game before mine, I’ve had this happen a thousand times over the last several years. The Mountaineers play basketball like they’re getting paid by the minute and going over another window gets them time and a half.
Three-Point Shooting
Texas made their first 3 threes. They went 3-18 the rest of the way. Texas is now shooting 32.8% from three this season - 31.1% in conference play - which would be the worst mark since the ‘17-’18 season, and it’s in no small part because Texas isn’t getting as many unguarded looks as they did against the cupcake schedule. It doesn’t help that guys like Ramey and Jones are passing up open looks again, if they’re not going to take set shots when they’re open then they’re more likely to be taking them in worse conditions later in the shot clock.
Free Throws
Texas was 14-16 from the line, which inarguably sealed this game for them. Marcus Carr went 8-8 and is now 36-44 (81.8%) from the line in conference play, and that’s good enough it makes me not think about the fact he was 0-5 from two and threw up some awful shots in highly questionable situations. I’m definitely not thinking about that right now. Nope.
Macro Level
Turnovers, Again
I previously mentioned the turnovers forced delta narrowing on Texas; they’re now underwater on that statistic in conference play as they turn the ball over 21.1% of the time compared to forcing turnovers 20.4% of the time. This statistic can’t continue to trend this way. I don’t have a joke here, this is bad.
Alright, maybe one joke.
Defensive Perspective
Here are the points per possession each team with a pulse has averaged against Texas this season (this section was written prior to the OSU game):
Gonzaga - 1.32ppp, 65 possessions
Seton Hall - 1.03ppp, 62 possessions
Stanford - 0.80ppp, 66 possessions
West Virginia - 0.87ppp, 68 possessions
Kansas State - 0.95ppp, 60 possessions
Oklahoma State - 1.05ppp, 61 possessions
Oklahoma - 0.84ppp, 62 possessions
Iowa State - 1.14ppp, 69 possessions
Kansas State - 1.10ppp, 60 possessions
That’s an average of just over 1.01ppp against what I would describe as high-major competition, with three of the last four games being above that number. That is good but not great defense, and - I’m going to mention this about a thousand times this season - Beard’s highest level of success over the years has been predicated upon having elite bordering on historic defense. As a point of reference, in the title game season Beard’s Tech defense only allowed higher than 1.01ppp seven times and averaged 0.935ppp in conference play. That may not sound like a large difference, but in a 60 possession game that’s about 4.5 points/game. In other words, the Seton Hall game and the Kansas State home game would be wins instead of a losses right now.
There’s not an easy answer here; the Texas roster has several players with defined skillsets who excel in one area and not so much in others. Texas getting better defensively means Andrew Jones is back on the bench, but that makes the offensive potential that much lower for 10-12 minutes in a 40-minute game. Marcus Carr is the same thing with the added issue of you’re now telling Courtney Ramey or Devin Askew to run the offense. If Beard wants to win on defense, rock fights are going to ensue. Slow rock fights. Like they’re going to roll the rocks at each other. Through mud.
Bigs Shooting Threes
There are myriad reasons why the offense is having issues, and one of them is Texas basically abandoning the use of their bigs as perimeter shooters. It’s not always a bad plan - Christian Bishop has hit four more threes in his college career than I have - but a couple of these guys are supposed to be at least theoretical deep threats a defense has to play honestly, and Texas put on film early in the season that Allen, Mitchell, and Disu are willing to shoot from distance. Here are their numbers in 12 non-conference and 7 conference games:
Tre’ Mitchell: NonCon, 11-31 (35.5%), B12, 3-11 (27.3%)
Timmy Allen: NonCon, 3-13 (23.1%), B12 0-1 (0%)
Dylan Disu: NonCon, 1-11 (9.1%), B12 0-3 (0%)
Christian Bishop: NonCon, 2-5 (40%), B12 0-1 (0%)
You may have noticed they are a combined 3-16 from three in conference play - it was 1-12 coming into the Oklahoma State game - so even when they are taking the shots they aren’t hitting them. If the coaching staff has sat them down and said “y’all can’t shoot them if you’re not going to hit them” that’s understandable, but it also makes this offense that much simpler to defend. If a Big 12 team sees Carr & Allen do a pick & pop and know they don’t have to worry about the Allen pop hurting them, things just got that much harder for Carr. Either run it and live with the results or don’t run it at all, because I guarantee you the other teams have the stats on how little the shot goes up in that situation and are adjusting their defense to suit. Putting Carr & Bishop in a pick & pop is basically asking for Carr to get doubled. Mitchell is the only exception to this point, as he put up four 3PA in the second Oklahoma State game compared to zero for the other bigs.
The Math Hasn’t Really Changed
I have an incredibly advanced personal statistic called BWG-EW, which is an abbreviation for Bitterwhiteguy Expected Wins and not the statement most people make when I start talking about my testicles on the internet. The Oklahoma State win was expected, the Kansas State loss was not. In the last four games Texas has met expectations three times and missed once (KSU); for me to raise my view of their season prospects, they’ll need to exceed my expectations and the first chance for that comes this week against Tennessee.
Upcoming Games:
Tuesday, January 25th: at TCU 8:00 PM CT (ESPNU)
Saturday, January 29th: vs Tennessee 7:00 PM CT (ESPN)
Please remember to check out Pretend We’re Football - sometimes the audio doesn’t get corrupted by the one guy in our podcast using a Mac built in 1987 - and/or our Twitter account. My next recap will come out after Tennessee. I have a Patreon if you want to tip me.
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I watched the last 18 minutes and saw no Licon. +1 for Beard.
Possibly the most frustrating thing to me as a Texas basketball fan over the last 10 years (at least) is how, over multiple coaching staffs, it seems like we reach a point in the season where the Texas offense is "solved", for lack of a better term. That is, the defense seems to know how to take away the best option that Texas has, and then the whole offense just seems to fall apart. Like this year, it seems like if the defense aggressively defends Marcus Carr on a pick, the main offensive option is gone and the rest of the possession is a struggle.
I guess it's an overall talent issue--if you have guys like Drew Timme, the defense can't really solve them, or the whole offense. I had hoped that with the transfers seeming to have good offensive talent, it wouldn't happen this year, but alas....