Texas Depth Chart 2020-2021

I cannot wait to see how Shaka fucks this up

Texas is going into this season with an unprecedented amount of depth for the Shaka Smart tenure; there are up to 11 guys on this team who have a decent case for at least 10 minutes/game, and the 2-3 who aren’t in that list are skipped over mostly because of the guys in front of them rather than a lack of ability to contribute on a high-major team. There isn’t an obvious redshirt sitting on this squad right now, which poses some significant dilemmas for this staff. They will need to do some thorough evaluations when they decide who gets to play how much and then be willing to have some tough conversations. This roster is deep and pretty balanced, and some guys who have played more in the past are likely going to see those minutes drop. Before we get into the minutes, let’s talk about the players.

Greg Brown (Freshman, 6-7)

There is a needle to be threaded when it comes to describing Greg Brown, because it is simultaneously true that:

1. He is possibly the most polished freshman to hit the 40 Acres since Kevin Durant

2. He is nowhere near as offensively gifted as Kevin Durant

I understand why a lot of people see a 6-7 wing with impressive hops and an ability to shoot the three and say “KD”, because it’s superficially similar and would match the hype he has generated since signing with Texas. It probably adds a layer to the hype that he is the sole member of the 2020 class, and Texas holding a spot open for him throughout the year implies an extra level of importance. So I get it, the hype is significant. Having said that, he is not Kevin Durant. Who is? Durant is one of what, the five best players to ever play at Texas? He’s mentioned alongside names like LaSalle Thompson, Slater Martin, and TJ Ford for good reason, and his jersey is retired at a school which is incredibly reluctant to retire basketball jerseys. Putting that level of expectation on Greg Brown is irresponsible; yes, he should be quite good and yes his social media presence is outstanding, but all the Youtube views and HedgehogFam hashtags do not put points on the scoreboard. My podcast co-host likes to refer to Greg Brown as “a billionaire’s Royce Hamm” and once my visceral hatred of that term dissipates, I kinda see it. He is an energy guy stuffed in the body of a NBA wing; he goes hard after rebounds and runs the floor, but he also happens to be able to do a between-the-legs dunk in traffic and hit some threes. It is incumbent for Texas to deploy him properly, by which I mean they need to understand how well (or poorly) he’s going to shoot from three in high-major basketball and adjust accordingly. He’s very capable of being the roll guy in a PnR play, he’s very capable of being a guy who cuts to the basket for dunks & putbacks, and he can be deadly in transition with the help of, say, a veteran group of point guards who know how to run a break. There are a lot of possibilities here, and the success or failure of this season will ride in part on their ability to adequately deploy Brown in places where his NBA-level athleticism is maximized.

Matt Coleman (Senior, 6-2)

Matt Coleman made some pretty significant efficiency leaps between his sophomore & junior seasons. His O-rtg was up, as was his assist rate and his PPP in spot-up and isolation situations; in fact his numbers in spot-up shooting and transition situations were both great, ranking in the 89th & 70th percentile nationally. Coleman was an upper-tier Big 12 guard in most respects last season - including hitting just a shade under 40% of his threes and 80% of his free throws - which is a major factor as to why he was named preseason All-Big 12 and put on the Bob Cousy watch list. If there’s a bone to pick with him, it’s that his numbers against zone defenses were poor and he didn’t get to the free throw line nearly enough. Some of this is a consequence of him not driving to the rim to shoot and/or draw contact, but rather driving to look for an open man on the perimeter. It’s something that was a big part of the offense last year, and contributed to Texas being one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the line. If Coleman (among others, we’ll get to them) was a more consistent threat to drive all the way to the rim, he might draw the contact needed to get to the line. If the defense knows Coleman is taking it to the hole it also might - hear me out - open up those passing lanes a bit more for the guys on the perimeter. This offense doesn’t need to galaxy-brain things; get to the rim with older, stronger guards and good things tend to happen as a result.

Coleman is a solid but not spectacular defender, and given this is year 4 it might be unreasonable to expect a huge jump; if he hasn’t been an all-conference defender in some pretty great defenses, he probably isn’t going to be one this year, either. I hope that there are enough good guards on the roster that Coleman doesn’t have to carry the load as primary ball-handler quite so much so he has the energy to pick it up on the defensive end. He’s shown flashes of being able to take on elite guards, and a couple minutes/game of rest should help those flashes extend to… I don’t know, stints? Periods? Spells? of high-quality defense.

Courtney Ramey (Junior, 6-3)

For me, Courtney Ramey was pretty easily the most disappointing player for Texas last year; just about every meaningful metric of his was worse than the season before. His massive cold streak from three through most of non-conference play was the most notable, but he also wasn’t as good with the ball in his hands running the offense. His eFG%, TS%, assist rate, steal percentage, almost everything dropped off last season. He was better in isolation plays, but even in that realm he was below where he needed to be; Ramey struggled more than me trying to come up with a witty metaphor for how much Ramey struggled, which is….a lot. (nailed it!) When Ramey is at his best through the first two seasons, he is a great on-ball defender with a mean streak and a good stroke from three; for him to become the best version of what this team needs, he needs to add the ability to consistently finish at the rim and get his free throw make percentage into the high 70s. If he can do that, he takes a lot of pressure off of Coleman - and my perpetually overworked analogy generator - and gives Smart even more flexibility with his guard lineups. His return to form would make me feel a bit better about the ‘21-22 season as well.

Andrew Jones (Redshirt Junior, 6-4)

Greg Brown is the headline this season, but for my money this team will go as far as Andrew Jones can take them. This is not to say that I think he’ll be a primary ball-handler or that he’s going to play 35 minutes/game, more that there are few players as well-suited to take advantage of an offensive system that prizes three-point shooting as Jones. If Texas gets something resembling pre-cancer sophomore Jones - and if you haven’t, read this article from Dustin McComas - they have a combo guard who is a threat in transition and elite shooting out to 26 feet to warp defenses in multiple ways. He showed glimpses of it late in the season and he’s been getting stronger all off-season so the physicality of the Big 12 shouldn’t bother him. He’s also coming along as a defender, and at his size he can defend multiple spots on the floor. If Jones can take the next step as the ball-handler in PnR, you can start to pair him up with guys like Sims, Kai Jones, and Brown and build some really interesting actions that put defenses in conflict and can punish them for indecision.

Jericho Sims (Senior, 6-10)

Sims was on a tear before an injury cut his junior year short; he had the 2nd-highest 2-point make percentage in the Big 12 behind walking bucket Udoka Azuibuike, he was one of the five best rebounders in the conference, and he was in the 95th percentile offensively in Synergy. His O-rtg was 4th in the Big 12, just a touch behind potential lottery pick Tyrese Halliburton, and he held his own in the post defensively against some really good bigs. His defense on the roll man in PnR situations graded out well too; he was playing at a high enough level that there was some speculation he might leave for the NBA. All of that ended with his back injury, which is mostly-good news for Texas; the Longhorns will be able to bring Will Baker in more strategically rather than have to count on Baker making a big leap, and with another off-season of strength conditioning under Andrea Hudy, Sims might be squatting a Prius while rocking -4% body fat. It’s not fair to say he’s chiseled so much as he’s taken on a support role burning fat for other teammates. They have a siphon station in the weight room where they sit a player (looking at you, baby face Baker) on an elevated seat, puncture their belly and gravity transfer the fat over to Jericho. Maybe the most amazing thing is that Sims isn’t even working out, he just meditates that fat into oblivion. It’s incredible and disgusting all at once, I don’t know why they decided to use transparent tubes.

Sims needs to make more progress on his free throws and continue to build an offensive game out to at least the free throw line so opposing bigs can’t sag off him. Even if he doesn’t improve beyond his junior year, he’s going to be a really solid piece for the team if his back holds up for a full season.

Kai Jones (Sophomore, 6-11)

Jones had an up and down freshman campaign, showcasing moments where his athleticism and agility were both boon and curse. His block rate in conference play was 6th in the Big 12 and he snagged more steals than I expected, but like any young ballhawk he fell victim to guessing and being too aggressive and it led to him being burned. He also had one game where he was so far out of line with the defense that it was indistinguishable from point shaving. (I had to look it up to find out it was the UAB game as I have expunged memories of half the season from my brain for my own sanity. I suggest everyone do the same, tequila helps the process.) Jones has a ton of potential, which is probably pretty obvious by the fact they’re (rightfully) letting a 6-11 guy play on the wing. It would not surprise me that a senior Jones - if he’s here that long, 6-11 wings don’t grow on trees - could turn out to be a monster defender. His length, athleticism, and the growth he showed from the UAB game to the end of the year was significant. His offensive game is growing, and his shooting form shows signs of him eventually being a decent three-point threat.

Will Baker (Sophomore, 6-11)

I mean, it couldn’t get much worse!

Baker had one of the worst freshman years I’ve ever seen from a consensus 5-star player; when you look up his stats on Synergy the site tries to save you some grief by showing you Goatse images in place of the actual statistics. (if you’re unfamiliar, please do not Google it) Baker averaged 0.5 PPP offensively, which is impressive in the way it’s impressive Clay Travis still has black friends other than Jason Whitlock or in the way my kidneys haven’t yet been sponsored by Tito’s. Baker scored 49 points all season and 20 of them came in a single-game supernova explosion against TCU; that game showed what he’s capable of but also reminds us all of what he didn’t do the rest of the year. I came into last season with relatively diminished expectations of Baker and he still managed to fall short, though it was pretty obvious that after his 0-fer streak from three hit double-digits it was a massive mental block keeping him from doing better. I don’t know what the basketball equivalent of ‘the yips’ is, but Baker had it and then some. The shot always looks good in his hand and as it leaves his hand, it just went all over the damn place from that point on. If he can move past that mental block - when your own fans are sarcastically cheering after a made three, things aren’t going great! - and settle into his role as “a billionaire’s Dylan Osetkowski” (®Tim Preston) then he can provide a consistent and different threat than Sims. His defense was solid as a freshman in man situations, and I suspect he has the athleticism to be a productive roll defender in PnR going forward. I’m glad Sims is around to take the starting 5 spot, but with the right improvements Baker could provide depth that isn’t a dramatic drop-off. Plus, my “we finally have a 5-star who doesn’t start until he’s a junior like Kansas has every goddamn year” monkey paw wish is fully in play, and I’ll take any win I can at this point, consequences be damned.

Brock Cunningham (Redshirt Sophomore, 6-4)

I spent the first two years of Cunningham’s tenure dying alone on Cunningham Mountain, saying over and over that I thought he would blossom into something important. I got my ass handed to me over and over again, watching him sit on the bench as other players went in for garbage minutes. Still, I did not waver; I saw what I saw and I was willing to roll with it. Then came the rash of injuries at the tail end of the 2020 conference season and Cunningham was forced into a major role, where everybody got to see what I saw in AAU ball: a guy who is always around the damn ball. He’s grabbing rebounds over guys five inches taller than him, he’s diving for loose balls, he’s creating offensive possessions for a team on the edge of the abyss. He’s every hackneyed cliche you want to throw at him: lunchpail, glue guy, high IQ, etc. He’s a guy who contributes to the team and doesn’t demand the ball be run through him, which is an essential aspect of a role player. I’m not entirely sure how Cunningham fits into this team, but I know he needs to see the floor. It may be as simple as sending him in and telling him to go get boards, but he’ll do it. Also, it’s a small sample size but it seems like in the off-season he’s changed his three-point shot form back to something a bit more standard than the “what if I put English on every shot” thing he was doing where they all came out with a side-spin. I guess he stopped watching Double Dribble NES ROMs for technique tips.

Donovan Williams (Sophomore, 6-6)

Stretch is finally back from his surgery, having recently (as of this writing) been cleared to practice fully. His physical attributes scream ‘NBA’ eventually, and if you’re around Fran Fraschilla for more than ten minutes he’ll probably tell you the same. What he lacks right now is strength, which manifests itself in his inability to get into the lane reliably against set defenses. I don’t yet know if he’s going to be stronger this year as the Texas S&C staff has had to make sure not to set his rehab back; perhaps next offseason is the one where he really starts to get big enough he can dive into the lane at will. His defense graded out well last year - especially for a freshman - albeit mostly against spot-up shooters. His ability to fight through screens will be tested and it remains to be seen how much of a leap he’ll take this year. It’s possible he doesn’t see the floor a ton depending on how the staff rotates people in - they might get him in more than I think, anyone who is reading this has seen me be wrong about sophomores more than once - but I would imagine there will be a boatload of minutes available for him as a junior.

Gerald Liddell (Junior, 6-8)

You tell me which Liddell shows up this year and I’ll tell you how much he plays. If it’s the Liddell from the Purdue game, he’s going to rearrange the entire rotation and force the coaching staff into some tough minutes decisions; if it’s the Liddell from…uhh, basically the rest of the season, he’s probably going to struggle to find minutes. Brown is in some ways what Smart & Co. hoped they could form Liddell into, but he hasn’t gotten nearly there yet; his defense was poor because he lacked recognition of the actions in front of him, and his indecision offensively made him a one-man possession killer. I lost count of the number of times where he got the ball on the perimeter and took so much time to decide what he was going to do that the defense had already recovered from every action beforehand, which he then predictably drove straight into causing an offensive foul and/or turnover. He can’t blame his injury because the problems surfaced well before then, either. He is “a Greg Brown on ketamine” (®Tim Preston). I’m honestly not sure what to expect from Liddell this year, but I suspect he will be a bench guy whose minutes will be mainly dependent upon the opponent.

Jase Febres (Senior, 6-5)

The NCAA is allowing players to play five seasons in six years as part of a pandemic-inspired eligibility extension program, meaning the normal 13-scholarship limit will not apply in the 2021-2022 season. This has knock-on effects, as any person who takes advantage of this and is still on the roster in 2022-2023 will effectively take away a scholarship from that class; but do you know who could take advantage of this without having that ripple effect? A senior who may need to work back slowly from a significant surgery, and would help smooth out the talent curve in a season after significant attrition due to graduation & early NBA entry. It would be even better if that senior provided potential for an offensive boost and was likely interested in working on a graduate degree. They could play this season if they came back from surgery healthy, but they wouldn’t need to and it might actually help the minutes situation if they spent the season doing rehab.

But where would we find such a player? I guess some questions will never be truly answered.

Kamaka Hepa (Junior, 6-9)

In the pantheon of things I wish for - I mean, beyond healthcare that isn’t retirement-threatening or the ability to grow a mane as lush and beautiful as Kamaka Hepa - there are few higher than “Kamaka Hepa’s basketball IQ gets transferred to the body of a NBA player”. It’s a weird thing to wish for, but I am a weird person with no discernible hobbies outside of writing a newsletter for fewer people than showed up to the first Texas NIT game. Hepa has all of the *insert Robo-Rothstein voice* intangibles *extract Robo-Rothstein voice* that you want in a player; he talks on defense, he sees plays developing, he understands his role. His execution isn’t always there though. I keep hoping Andrea Hudy finds out that his hamstrings have been tied together behind his back in a freak seal harvesting accident and with the power of a local airrosti clinic Hepa gets unleashed as the best Alaskan player in America. Maybe he already is, I’m not exactly up on Alaska’s basketball scene. You could tell me that there are twenty Eskimos in the G League who are absolutely lighting it up and I would quietly nod in agreement while looking for WiFi to Google it. Regardless, I’m not sure Hepa sees the floor a ton this year unless his shot is falling and his defensive rotations match up with his ability to spot where he should be. This team is deep.

Royce Hamm Jr. (Senior, 6-9)

Tim has yet to call Royce Hamm “a Brazilian favela’s Greg Brown” but we’ve got a whole season left of podcasts so at some point I might successfully goad him into it. We know who Hamm is at this point: the third ‘five’ in the rotation, an energy guy who goes in to snag rebounds, soak up fouls, and once in awhile block a shot nobody else even thought about blocking. His minutes will be tough to come by in the current rotation, but when he is in there he will give it his all.

Drayton Whiteside (Senior, 6-0)

Shaka Smart’s biggest failure as a coach last season is without a doubt besmirching the immaculate record of my sweet, sweet Drayton by inserting him into the Iowa State blowout. Shaka made a victory cigar into a shame cigar, which smells basically the same but is way sadder for reasons you’ll just have to trust me on. It was the final straw for me, I could not take Smart callously corrupting a coquettish competitor who was a beacon of purity in this terrible world. NOBODY PUTS DRAYTON IN A CORNER unless it’s to take a corner three, which he will drain right in your face for daring to disbelieve his drive to dominate. He is the canary of this team, and he deserves better. #Drayton2020-2021IsThisHowHashtagsWork

Let’s Talk Minutes

It is getting increasingly difficult to figure out how the minutes are going to be meted out as Shaka Smart’s teams build depth, for two reasons:

1. Smart seems to be interested in rotating guys in every two minutes regardless of the game flow, and

2. When has Smart ever stuck to an 8 or 9-man rotation without injuries forcing his hand

One of my gripes with Smart’s tenure is his general unwillingness to pare down his rotation as the season goes on; it’s great to have depth, the best teams have it! But at some point, you have to lean on your core guys. Take Bill Self at Kansas, here’s how many players he played last year in games against Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech: 9, 9, 8, 8, 7, & 8. Meanwhile, Texas had 11 players average 10+ minutes per game last season; some of that is due to guys getting minutes at the end after all the injuries, but it’s a common theme that Smart’s rotation goes deeper than I’d like when he has two guys averaging 30+ MPG more years than not. This is not the NBA where load management is a huge issue, especially on a team with this many upperclassmen and especially this season where they’re likely to play 5-6 fewer games than a normal season. They have the legs, you can play them longer. If one of the reserves comes in and lights it up, by all means let them cook, but don’t try to please every guy on the bench. Except for Whiteside, that walking cherub of a man needs to play every game for a couple of minutes.

The exception to this is if Smart decides to actually do a thing he’s talked about doing for years: play with pace. With this kind of depth and the multitude of athletes on the roster, this squad is well-suited to get out in transition as often as possible. Spend the early workouts teaching Sims, Baker, Hamm, and Hepa the finer points of hitting an outlet pass to a guard on a full sprint and beat the other team back to the basket. One of the things that makes North Carolina so fun to watch is that they know how to get out and run year after year; Roy Williams knows how to push tempo better than most and I would run a 4chan server devoted to the weirdest forms of hentai in my home for a month to get Texas to break out of its glacial tempo. I already have the server setup and connected to the router, I’ve been…testing it thoroughly…for…..awhile. Whenever you’re ready, Shaka.

I put together this list, but some of this is as much a ‘priority order’ as anything. I feel pretty safe believing that the starting five is Coleman, Ramey, AJ1, Brown, and Sims. Beyond that, the numbers are going to get wonky depending on injuries, transfers, if a player can’t come back from injury, etc. My hunch is if Smart starts to cut the rotation down, the most likely beneficiaries of the extra minutes are Baker & Cunningham. There are some people whose minutes are inversely proportional, where one player getting more minutes likely means the other gets less. For example, if Sims is playing 35 MPG, Baker is probably seeing the floor less often.

Upcoming preview pieces:

11/16 - Non-Conference Preview

11/20 - Big 12 Preview