The Calculus of a Coaching Change

It's more than just #FireShaka

Almost exactly 13 months ago, I wrote a column calling for Shaka to go. The math was not in his favor, either in the W/L column or in fan attendance. The team was floundering and it appeared the end was nigh. I started working on a piece detailing possible replacements and the general framework of who constitutes a “reasonable” target for Texas, when lo and behold Shaka pulled off a five-game winning streak that likely saved his job (sorry, SPOILER WARNING) as a worldwide pandemic kicked into high gear and cancelled whatever games were left on Texas’ schedule (again, sorry, SPOILER WARNING). We spent more energy dunking ourselves in vats of rubbing alcohol and making facemasks out of plastic Target bags than on whether or not Shaka was going to come back for another year and one CDC laid low while the other CDC was taking a public beating (you guess which is which). In a moment of ultimate genius, I decided there was no reason to keep that article handy for a year and deleted it. Shaka had clearly figured everything out for good & there couldn’t possibly be a backslide at some point in the future so this plan, that’s an impossibility based upon his past, this idea is foolproof.

Welp.

This piece is going to be one part me attempting to exhume that article from the recesses of my brain that haven’t been permanently altered/destroyed/warped into lunacy by the last year and one part working out the math on whether or not Shaka staying another year makes sense. This article is not a prediction at what happens, rather a look into the gray area of getting rid of him and which coaches are (or, more to the point, are not) in play. Knowing my luck, I will publish this approximately two minutes before CDC makes a move that makes it all moot.

The Framework

Let’s start by talking about Texas for a moment, and where the job fits in the landscape of college basketball. It is an upper-tier job, one of the better spots for a coach in D-I. It has access to a breadth of recruiting both locally and nationally with the right staff, the facilities are high-level, and there’s a new arena on the literal & figurative horizon. The pay is very good but unlikely to set the market (more on this shortly), the fanbase isn’t constantly up your ass all the time (hello, Indiana) and you get the runway to make a mistake here and there without being shoved out a 14th-floor fire escape. It is a desirable job; it is not a top-5 job, but it is definitely a top-25 job. We can quibble with whether it is a top-15 or top-25, there are reasonable arguments either way, but I think we can all agree it is not on the level of a blue blood like Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, and UNC. With that said, it’s reasonable to say that most coaches in the country would at least pick up the phone if CDC called, though it’s fair to understand some of them would do it solely to get a salary bump at their current gig. Let’s look into some of the limitations of who Texas can’t or shouldn’t go after.

No Blue Bloods

Texas is not a blue blood, and the perception of it in basketball is not at the level it is in football. It’s not chopped liver, but to most outside observers Texas is a level or two below the Kansases & Kentuckys of the world. There is a hierarchy of jobs in every sport, and there are a handful of spots Texas is exceedingly unlikely to ever pry a coach out of:

• Coach Krzyzewski - Duke (I almost got that without looking, stupid second ‘z’)

• John Calipari - Kentucky

• Roy Williams - UNC

• Bill Self - Kansas

I’m going to take a moment to discuss Self, as his situation is unique and some people may think there’s an opening there. Kansas is under a cloud of NCAA investigation, Self has one year left on his deal, and they just went through their worst season in his tenure - only making the second round, what a catastrophe! - plus many Kansas fans are grumbling about him not being good enough because they’re a bunch of spoiled bitches who don’t understand real basketball pain. There is a narrative out there that he might be looking to leave - people have pegged him to leave for the Spurs when Pop retires for like a decade now - but my understanding from people closer to Kansas is that his motivation is to get the NCAA punishment sorted out (settlement, IARP decision, whatever) sooner than later so he can get extended and work on fixing recruiting issues. In other words, he ain’t interested in leaving, and it seems unlikely at this point he’ll be forced out by either the NCAA or Kansas. I mean, they don’t even have an AD, who is going to fire him? Kansas is in a terrible spot and a cheating bird in the hand is better than two cheating birds in a cheating bush, cheating. So as of now, consider Self unattainable. Also, Becky Hammon is way more likely to succeed Pop than any college coach.

No Olds

With all due respect to the boomers who are over-represented on a site that largely relies on email distribution - we love our elders here, even if you don’t realize how often you fart around strangers - there’s an age cutoff for a new Texas coach. The ultimate goal for Texas is to find a young Roy Williams or pre-Florida Billy Donovan, somebody who can be here for a decade or more. (The whole “pick an old guy who can bring along a HCIW” idea is pretty much a non-starter in general; coaching turnover in basketball happens quickly, any nearly-ready assistant is likely to head off before the keys are handed to him in the first place. Just ask several former Boeheim assistants.) That pretty much knocks out any 70+ year old coach from the discussion, of which there are a few.

• Jim Calhoun - Saint Joseph né UConn (78)

• Jim Boeheim - Syracuse (76)

• Leonard Hamilton - Florida State (72, I swear to god this is true)

• Jim Larranaga - Miami (71)

I could plausibly add in a number of 65+ coaches; consider that Lon Kruger is 68 - he retired literally as I wrote this section - and coaches north of 65 tend to start retiring for good at a high rate. Who else might be in this group, you ask? Oh, nobody really.

• John Beilein - Big Ten Network, plus somewhere else (68)

• Bob Huggins - West Virginia (67)

• Tom Izzo - Michigan State (66)

They’re Happy Where They Are

Basketball is a bit of a different animal than football, coaches can find their fit at a place that’s a bit of a non-traditional power and be very hesitant to leave. If a coach has been at one job for more than 15 years, they’re probably pretty happy and not looking to move for a job that isn’t one of the four blue bloods (and often not even for them). Coaching is such a notorious profession for moving around the country that coaches who can succeed and are supported by their athletic department will put down roots and stay until they’re forcibly removed. These coaches are unlikely to head to Texas because they like their current gig.

• Bob McKillop - Davidson (1989)

• Tom Izzo - Michigan State (1995)

• Mark Few - Gonzaga (1999)

• Mike Brey - Notre Dame (2000)

• Randy Bennett - Saint Mary’s (2001)

• Jay Wright - Villanova (2001)

• Scott Drew - Satan’s Butthole (2003)

There’s a Salary Limit

Texas pays well, usually in the top 20-25 gigs in the country and/or in the upper half of the Big 12. That slides over time as the market increases, but they will likely jump back into that conversation with the new deal when it happens. Right now, jumping into the top 10 salaries means somewhere around $4m/year for the new coach, but let me put a ceiling on it: $5.7m/year. That’s the average yearly salary for Steve Sarkisian, and it would be a significant surprise to me if Texas pays its basketball coach more than its football coach for a number of reasons, not the least of which is how much they would owe if it doesn’t work out. I suspect whoever Texas hires is going to have a significantly more reasonable buyout option than what Shaka has with his fully guaranteed contract. Honestly, I would think Texas stays well below $5.7m/year, but let’s leave it at that for now.

• Chris Beard - Texas Tech ($5.05m/year)

Beard moving to Texas doesn’t make much financial sense for him even if he were willing to leave a place where he’s basically unquestioned/untouchable. (I don’t think his feet have touched anything other than rose petals in 24 months, which may explain why he doesn’t have foot herpes.) I suspect there are only a couple of jobs he might leave for, and they’re ones that will crack $6m/year (looking at you, Kentucky).

On a related note, here are some steep buyouts that will likely make Texas take a pass. (Buyout numbers from USA Today)

• Nate Oats - Alabama (est. $14.4m)

• Buzz Williams - Texas A&M (est. $16.9m)

• Chris Mack - Louisville (est $12.5m)

• Brad Underwood - Illinois (est. $10m)

• Tony Bennett - Virginia (est $21.7m whaaaaa?)

If this were football, there might be an appetite for this kind of payout. Texas has never shown the appetite for this kind of cash transfer in basketball; they gave Shaka this last year in part because he would have been owed ~$9.6m if they parted ways in March 2020, so paying Shaka $6.6m plus these buyout numbers seems unlikely, especially 3 months or so after hitting up the donors for all the money to get Herman out and Sarkisian in. I know the Texas 1%ers did great during the pandemic but they probably want to keep at least some of the money they made the last year.

No. Just, No.

• Rick Barnes - Tennessee (you know who you are)

• Jeff Capel - Pitt

• Mark Turgeon who has been mediocre at - Maryland and Texas A&M

• Either Miller brother - Arizona/formerly Indiana

• Dana Altman - Oregon (Google him, you’ll see)

• Tom Crean - Georgia

That’s 30 names which are off the board at this point barring either a crazy amount of money being thrown on the table or an unexpected desire to GTFO of their current gig, 30 names which make up the lion’s share of proven high-major head coaches.

Yea.

Uhh…

Shit.

The Case for Keeping Shaka Smart

As the list above shows for various reasons, most of the ‘proven’ high-major coaches are likely unattainable. There’s a good chance one or more of the names floating around in your head have been mentioned, and I’ll let you have a moment to reflect.

Go ahead, take your time.

Here, have some music.

Feel better? Great.

The Risk Factor

This point was brought up when the discussions about letting Rick Barnes walk were all the rage, and it’s worth revisiting: the next hire could very well produce worse results. Barnes had stagnated and was unable to recreate the success he attained earlier in his Texas tenure; Texas still made the tournament most years, but rarely won more than one game if they won one at all. His teams tended to get worse as the season wore on, they usually peaked in November or December and there were seasons when the tournament loss felt almost like a release than a disappointment. He was clearly getting burnt out and his rosters got progressively more disjointed/short-term in their solutions; it was time for him to go. Even still, it was mentioned that the potential downside of letting him go was greater than the potential upside. I think it’s safe to say that has borne itself out with Shaka, his results are marginally worse than Barnes through 6 years. That said, he hasn’t been awful or even mediocre, just not up to what Texas fans want. This year was the first in several years where it looked like he built something resembling what Texas fans had been asking for, and despite the tournament loss it looked like he had the program going in mostly the right direction. So it’s going to be said again: letting the current coach go does not happen without significant risk even if you get what you think is a home run hire…and most of us thought Shaka was a home run. Could the next coach be better? Absolutely. Could the next coach be worse? Yup. A couple of examples:

Texas A&M is in their second year with Buzz Williams and they’re .500 in those two seasons, with a 2-8 record in the SEC this year. Buzz was considered a great hire by most people (including me) and while it’s still early, he has yet to turn that program around. He’s lost 4 players to the transfer portal this season, so his team next year is likely to still be young and unproven. It’s possible he flounders around for another year or two, at which point the Aggies are likely to start grumbling that they’re still stuck in Andy Kennedy-level purgatory.

Nolan Richardson got Arkansas to the Final Four three times, winning one natty and coming in second another time. He was fired in 2002, and Arkansas just made their first Sweet 16 since Richardson’s tenure. They missed the tournament entirely 11 times in 18 years and won 3 March Madness games in that timeframe. Eric Musselman may be their answer, but they wandered the desert for a long time before he got there.

Shaka Smart’s replacement could be an improvement, they could find their answer for the next decade with this hire, but it’s important to remember this is not a risk-free decision.

The Alternatives

If you agree with some or all of the points I laid out earlier that knocked out a number of the safer candidates, the remaining candidates carry with them a fair amount of risk/downside. Hell, three of my top 6 preferred candidates when I wrote that article aren’t available any more. I would have liked to get Nate Oats, or Eric Musselman, or Matt Painter to Texas, but by my own standards they’re out of reach. (I kinda think Painter would still listen, but logical consistency is a bitch.) One of my other preferred candidates? Steve Wojciechowski…who was just fired. So, uhh, guess he’s available? But it’s not exactly getting me giddy to go after a guy Marquette decided to toss. Two other guys I targeted were Kevin Keatts and Kevin Willard, one of whom is in the NIT and the other is fishing.

After those names, you start getting into the likes of guys like Porter Moser, who appears to be a very good coach but is coming from a mid-major off one Final Four run and otherwise limited resume and does that sound familiar to you at all because it probably should be burning your ears to a crisp right now. Could he work? Sure, he checks a lot of theoretical boxes; but right now he is not ‘proven’ by my definition. There are other mid-major guys who fit this same mold, and it’s not a knock on them to point out that the Big 12 is a conference where nearly half (okay 30% since Kruger just retired) of the coaches are either current or future Hall of Famers and a few more have Final Fours to their name, so it’s entirely possible to be a solid coach and get your shit wrecked by half the conference on a regular basis. We’ve lived it in multiple Shaka Smart years! Any mid-major hire will have to come in and get thrown into the deep end of a pool filled with hungry sharks. Iowa State learned this with Prohm, and is very likely to learn it again with Otzelberger. Bruce Weber has a Final Four to his name and he’s reliably on the hot seat. This conference is brutal.

The Money or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Shaka Smart is, for lack of a better term, already paid for. The remaining cash will go in his bank account regardless of where he is 24 months from now, he will have CDC’s signature on his checks to the tune of $6m+. That money is spent, and replacing Shaka Smart now just means Texas is paying double for coaching for the next 2 years unless they work out some sort of unique arrangement with another school. Maybe the easiest thing to do is nothing at all; letting Shaka have another year burns off $3m+ of the remaining total, and if he bombs it is that much cheaper to move on. Plus you’re not fighting the likes of Indiana and Oklahoma for the new coach, so the market may be a bit cooler. (You might be dealing with Arizona and/or Kansas if their NCAA rulings go south, so nothing is guaranteed.) Texas is also a year removed from the football outlay so donors might be more up for the expense.

Maybe there’s a middle ground, where Texas and Smart’s agent work out an extension that gets him in better recruiting position while spreading the guaranteed money out over 4 years instead of two, making it easier to swallow for both sides.

Letting Shaka have another year to figure it out (or bomb) is probably the simplest answer with the least relative downside. I don’t know that I agree with it, but it has merit. This is the part where my personal friction - I really need a better term for this, it sounds like I’m battling saddle sores or a severe lube shortage - comes into play. Part of me is rational and understands the business side of things, it’s the same side that understands that other than the last game this season was a success. Shaka showed everywhere except the NCAA Tournament that he could produce a high-level team and can compete with just about anyone in a given year. But the fan in me wants to scream “OTHER THAN THAT HOW WAS THE PLAY, MRS. LINCOLN” at the rational side of my brain.

I don’t know where I come down on this, frankly. We’re sitting here watching a program that has undeniably made progress over the last 24 months. Texas is 28-24 in the Big 12 in the last three seasons; that’s better than Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia. Texas won in Lawrence for the second time ever, and became the first team from the state of Texas to win the Big 12 tournament. Good things have happened! And yet. Aaaaand yet.

This would have been so much easier if they won a game or two in the tourney, but that’s not how the Shaka Smart tenure rolls. There is no pleasure without pain, no joy without suffering. This is basketball 50 Shades of Gray, but with a coherent plot and actors who seem like they want to be there. 50 Shakas of Gray, where you might get a dagger three or a stiletto to your scrotum. It’s the not knowing which that makes it exciting!