The Texas Non-Conference Schedule, 2021 Edition
Hope you bitches like cupcakes
The hardest part about starting this piece of the season preview is deciding where I’m going to unload on the schedule and how often I’m going to rake the people *cough* Chris Beard *cough* who chose it over the coals, because hoo boy it is something else.
Behold, the suckening:
I feel like I’m underselling things when I say that this schedule is fucking garbage, especially for Texas fans buying tickets to see games in Austin. There isn’t a non-conference home opponent worth a shit until late January, and that one may not live up to the hype if Barnes is in the midst of his more-often-than-not second-half-of-the-season swoon. The average 2021 KenPom ranking for the Austin opponents is 250.3, and if you yank out Tennessee it drops to 275. That means the average non-Tennessee home opponent is in the bottom third of all of D-I. Rice is the second-highest ranking team of that group. RICE.
Look, if you only watch the Gonzaga game and then check out until January, I get it. I’m half-inclined to subcontract out my weekly recaps to Doordash drivers who can’t find my house when I order food as some sort of punishment for them not knowing how to operate GPS. They can spend the time they don’t use learning how to put an address into Google Maps writing recaps about how Texas beat yet another religious school by 30. This schedule is garbage, and it has consequences, specifically that Texas is going to be overly-reliant on conference results for its postseason goals. There’s a math to non-conference scheduling that football doesn’t necessarily have due to the number of games played; the NCAA Tournament committee puts the basic formula out there for people to see every year. You have various angles to it, but most schools - and the two coaches who preceded the current one - get the basic fact that building your resume with a handful of Q1 & Q2 wins in non-conference play buttress your argument for being included in the fun and help you get higher seeds. This schedule is maybe two Q1 chances and a metric fuckton of Q3 & Q4 teams.
The only non-conference games worth a damn this year are ones Beard had no say in scheduling. Gonzaga’s home & home was scheduled under Shaka, the Big East and SEC challenges are setup by the conferences. The sole neutral site game is against a Stanford squad that will struggle to be in the top half of the PAC 12, which I’m supposed to pretend is exciting because it’s in Vegas, I guess. That game also wasn’t a Beard choice, FYI.
Meanwhile, here’s the Texas women’s basketball coach on the topic of nonconference scheduling:
Hey Vic, you wanna walk across the hall and have a chat with your coworker about scheduling like a team with title aspirations? You can use my Zoom account if it helps; maybe title the invite something that will get him on board, like “RE: the benefits of scheduling D-III volleyball teams”.
If Texas manages to get past Gonzaga, there’s a very real chance they enter conference play undefeated because most of the rest of the schedule prior to West Virginia on New Year’s Day is a sack of dead ferrets. That looks great in recaps but doesn’t mean much to the tournament selection committee; they don’t care that you went 11-0 in Q4 games.
Litmus Tests
at Gonzaga (11/13/2021, 2020 KenPom #1)
This game is probably the biggest of the year for Texas, with the possible exception of the game at Kansas which ends the regular season. Gonzaga will almost assuredly start the season ranked #1, they will have a team which is more talented than Texas, and they have an offense which will feature multiple problems for even the best defense. Add on that Mark Few has spent the off-season stewing over how to attack a no-middle defense and/or drinking heavily and there’s a decent chance Gonzaga walks over Texas. Drew Timme will start the year as the favorite to be the national player of the year, but I think the depth of the Texas frontcourt can make him work for every point. The issue is elsewhere, not the least of which is uber-unicorn Chet Holmgren. Holmgren has been the top recruit of this class since he was a 6-2 toddler, he’s a legit 7 feet tall and has handles like a guard. He also weighs about as much as a Fire Stick, so it’s possible Texas can use its (relative) old man strength to cause him problems, but it’s also possible he just starts raining down threes on the Longhorns. I haven’t even gotten to Andrew Nembhard, or that Rasir Bolton who gave multiple Big 12 teams fits last year is the backup point guard on this team. Gonzaga might win this game, beat UCLA in a rematch of the incredible 2021 Final Four contest, then beat Duke in Vegas, and walk into March undefeated again after playing a real non-conference schedule unlike Texas. (No, I will not let this go.) Gonzaga is as legit as they come, and if Texas is still figuring things out it could be a rough go for the new coaching staff.
Tennessee (01/29/2022, 2020 KenPom #28)
If Beard and/or Texas is serious about ‘uniting the family’, there’s a glaringly obvious way to do this which would unite a couple decades’ worth of players, coaches, and fans: use the Tennessee home game to announce that you’re putting Rick Barnes’ name on the court at the new arena. He is the best coach in the history of the men’s team, he left the program without going scorched earth behind the scenes (unlike a football coach whose name rhymes with Tack Frown), and enough time has passed that even the people who were very much done with him have chilled out. Bring him out in the pregame, have a little ceremony, let him talk to the fans. It’s the easiest of wins for the program. If you want to take it a step further and align both men’s & women’s programs, put his name on one side of the court and Jody Conradt’s name on the other side. They’ve both earned it and then some.
As for the game itself, Tennessee could be a top-20 team or out of the rankings entirely; they will be talented but somewhat young, and losing Keon Johnson & Jaden Springer to the pros hurts. Their guard play should be a strength and could give Texas problems, but their interior is still TBD and could be where Texas outshines the Volunteers to grab a quality home win.
Mid-Level Contests
at Seton Hall (12/09/2021, 2020 KenPom #54)
It’s possible this game turns into a Q1 opportunity by the end of the season; Lukas Harkins - who is a good guy to follow for Big Ten/Big East hoops - thinks Seton Hall is a team on the upper edge of the middle of the pack in the Big East, which means they’re probably a NCAA bubble team. Jared Rhoden is the name to know with this squad, he’s likely to be the team’s primary scoring option as a slasher and if he gets to the free throw line a lot he will make Texas pay; he hit 91% of his free throws in conference play last year. His turnover rate is really low, but those numbers were with him as the second option rather than the focus of the offense. Seton Hall has an elite shot-blocker in Ike Obiagu, so it will be incumbent upon the Texas bigs to either neutralize him with their low-post game, drag him out of the lane with perimeter shots (again, Texas would really benefit from an offense that prioritizes Mitchell & Disu getting quality outside shots) or walling him off to keep him from sending Carr, Jones, or Ramey layups into the Atlantic Ocean. Both teams will be solid defensively but have offensive questions heading into this game, so this could be a “first to 60 wins” scenario.
Mehhhh
Houston Baptist (11/9/2021, 2020 KenPom #341)
CDC tweeted this out on August 24th, which caused a minor kerfuffle:
At that point, most of the schedule was coming into focus; many people had seen it leaking out and we knew just about every opponent…except the opener on November 9th. Mind you, we were less than two weeks from the schedule being announced and well over 100 D-I schools had announced their non-conference schedule so if the other side of the matchup was a big name there was a good chance I was going to see it thanks to accounts like TheD1Docket. Between Beard’s scheduling proclivities and the lack of announcements, I had a guess it wasn’t going to be the type of school that would get a student sellout. Beard and crew kept putting on the press for people to come out, showing up at football pregame festivities and pressing the flesh, but when anyone would ask who they were playing Beard just kinda changed the subject. So when the schedule came out on September 7th and I saw it was Houston Baptist I laughed my fucking ass off. Buddy, this ain’t Lubbock, you’re not selling out the student section on a Tuesday for Houston fucking Baptist. The Huskies have been in the Southland for 8 seasons, have won 6 or fewer games three of the last four seasons, and about the only thing they do of note is play at an absurdly fast tempo. They also turn the ball over a ton, so if the defense is even halfway to where it needs to be they’re probably going to pick a lot of pockets.
As an aside, I’m glad they got Chris Beard’s Twitter handle sorted. No verified account needs two underscores in their name unless they’re an anime account. @ChrisBeard_UwU_Texas is fine, but @ChrisBeard__UT is a monstrosity.
The “Abe Lemons Classic”
Northern Colorado (11/17/2021, 2020 KenPom #228)
San Jose State (11/20/2021, 2020 KenPom #333)
California Baptist (11/24/2021, 2020 KenPom #229)
You know how I know Abe Lemons is dead? Because I couldn’t hear him cussing from Oklahoma City when this dumbass ‘classic’ was announced. Chris Beard keeps talking about ‘uniting the family’ which is all well and good, but so far this uniting consists of Instagram photos of old players dropping by practice and Beard slapping old names on random things. These teams have about as much to do with Abe Lemons as I do; Lemons would howl at his name being used to play three teams with the same resting heart rate as he currently has. You know who Lemons played in non-conference the year they won the NIT? USC, Oklahoma, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and 5th-ranked Marquette. You want to honor Lemons, play some real opponents. Or hell, if you want to play patsies, schedule the schools Lemons used to coach; there’s one on the schedule this year (UT-RGV) and Beard didn’t even put them in this ‘classic’. But hey, I’m sure Beard will trot out Johnny Moore and ask him what Lemons was like, I’m sure that will go great.
Anyway, here’s one of my favorite Abe Lemons quotes:
“This players getting taller thing is getting out of hand. What we need to do is sink the baskets into the floor at each end of the court and recruit midgets.”
I take it back, this is my favorite:
“What’s an education? It’s good for the average guy, but if somebody hands a poor kid $2 million to go around half-naked, bouncing a ball, then he’d better take it.
“Then, if he wants a diploma, he can always buy a college and put his name on it. Like Oral Roberts did.”
Leon Black passed this off-season, which means the ‘22-’23 season will probably feature the Leon Black Classic where Texas faces off against Maine, Delaware State, and a dodgeball team from Southlake Carroll’s freshman PE class.
Sam Houston State (11/29/2021, 2020 KenPom #180)
Credit where it’s due, they’re finally playing a small team in Gregory Gym. I don’t know if they’ll keep this up when the new arena is ready, but at least they’re trying it once. If Beard is going to keep scheduling Midwestern Montana Lutheran Technical College, there will be plenty of options for who to put into the Greg each season. Sam Houston State is a team Tech beat by 32 last year, so I could go on about their love of high tempo, three-point-happy offense but bringing them into the Greg will be a stress test for how much basketball fans enjoy sitting in volleyball bleachers to watch a blowout. They’re making it students-only, which is probably wise given they’re some of the only people who will willingly line up hours in advance to watch this game in large enough numbers to call it a sellout.
You know who would have been fun here and a good candidate for the Abe Lemons Classic? The Oklahoma City Stars; they’re a NAIA school, their arena is literally named after Lemons and they’ve won 6 NAIA national titles. Make it an exhibition if you want, it would have more to do with Texas than Texas Lutheran and their D-III ass which Texas is going to treat like Bomani Jones quote-tweeting an All Lives Matter account with 6 followers. Hell, you know who coached the Stars to those titles? Ray Harper, who played for, you guessed it: Abe Lemons at Texas. It’s honestly not that hard to make these connections stick if you’re interested in doing even a minor amount of research. Instead, Chris Beard is going to stand in a spotlight in the pregame to talk about a guy whose legacy he doesn’t seem to grasp beyond a handful of pithy quotes.
GEORGE IS GETTING UPSET
UT-Rio Grande Valley (12/3/2021, 2020 KenPom #282)
Hello and welcome to the team that should have been in the Abe Lemons We Just Slapped A Name On These Games To Sell Tickets Classic. It is still likely going to be a slaughter, but it is at least a relevant slaughter.
GEORGE IS GETTING UPSET AGAIN
Arkansas Pine-Bluff (12/14/2021, 2020 KenPom #351)
Texas fans are in for an adjustment when it comes to Chris Beard’s preferred method of non-conference scheduling, by which I mean scheduling bad team buy game after bad team buy game for most of the schedule. Here are the Texas Tech non-conference strength of schedule ranks in KenPom during his five years there: 283, 296, 307, 309, 351. Average: 309.2. (As a comparison, the last 5 years for Texas: 85, 187, 41, 99, 103. Average: 95) Beard loves cupcakes like I love tenuous analogies, and there are only really two long-term outcomes: 1) he gets to keep doing this every year until he’s gone, or 2) CDC sees the gate revenue drop off a cliff in year three and tells Beard he needs to change his scheduling habits because Austinites have options for their entertainment. If you want the non-conference schedule to improve, you need to vote with your dollars and emails. Beard will not pick better opponents willingly, Texas fans need to force his hand. Arkansas: good. Arkansas Pine-Bluff: bad. The Golden Lions are 8-47 over the last two seasons and haven’t had a winning season since 2013; KenPom has a program ranking system that pulls data from 1997 to present and he ranks Arkansas Pine-Bluff 356th out of 357 teams. This team is awful. Enjoy the show!
Stanford (12/19/2021, 2020 KenPom #57)
“Hey, Stanford is a name” you might say as part of a rebuttal to my “Chris Beard loves scheduling shitty teams more than I love drinking tequila on a beach and reading books about the history of Jesus despite not being religious at all” perspective, which is true and also so remarkably specific that I’m concerned I’m oversharing on Twitter. (It won’t stop, I have a problem.) Stanford is a name, a name that has been to the tournament once in the last 13 years. They’re a name that is still trying to replicate the success they had under Trent fucking Johnson, the guy who went 0-fer in Big 12 play at TCU and whose high water mark in Big 12 conference play was 4-14. (He was a CDC hire, bee tee dubs. Okay, that shot is probably uncalled for.) That said, Jerod Haase is trying to get Stanford back to relevance; he seems to be pretty adept at getting the Cardinal into bubble talk and not a lot more just yet. His teams play good defense and relatively effective offense when they’re not turning the ball over…which they do. A lot. Only in one of his 5 seasons at Stanford have they ranked above the bottom 20% of teams in turnover percentage, and with the young team he’s bringing to Vegas that trend seems likely to continue if Texas is locked in defensively. Torvik has Texas as a 8.4-point favorite at the time I’m writing this, which is the fourth-worst margin for Texas in their non-conference schedule. That’s both a testament to the squad Beard has built and a condemnation of the schedule Beard has built. There are four teams Texas is less than a 10-point favorite against in non-conference play, there are seven in which Texas is at least a 20-point favorite. This schedule suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks.
Rice (12/22/2021, 2020 KenPom #188)
Hey speaking of former CDC haunts, Rice is here. Del Conte hired Ben Braun as one of his last hires before heading off to TCU, Rice is now on their third coach since the Braun hire. That’s less a knock on CDC than an understanding that coaches who do even reasonably well at Rice tend to leave; current coach Scott Pera was elevated to this gig when his former head coach Mike Rhoades bolted for VCU. Pera has been trying to put something together at a school which will basically never allow a substandard student in for the sake of athletics, this hamstrings a D-I coach on a level that effectively makes sustained athletic success impossible. I respect Rice’s commitment to academics and they’re probably the top learning institution in the state of Texas, but man it does not make for good sportsball. Rice hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1970, which means 90% of the people who read this dumb preview have not been alive to see Rice involved in March Madness. It happened long enough ago that it was still March Mild Perturbance. I’d like to say I’m workshopping that joke, but I’m definitely not coming back to fix it.
Incarnate Word (12/29/2021, 2020 KenPom #343)
The agnostic in me kinda likes using Xmas break to make a bunch of religious students question the type of god that would send them to Austin to get murdered by a secular squad of superior athletes. Maybe I don’t appreciate Chris Beard’s sense of irony enough. You know that Houston Baptist team I spent a paragraph bagging on earlier? Incarnate Word lost to them last year. Three times. Enough said.
Texas losing more than two games to this lineup of “the AD made us show up to finance our lacrosse uniforms budget” buy games would be a disappointment. Losing to anyone other than Gonzaga or Tennessee would be a disappointment. If Texas finishes their non-conference schedule with anything below 11-2 then this team has some significant problems to sort out and not much time to do it. 10 of these games should probably institute a running clock in the second half, for their sake and ours. Watch the Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Seton Hall games and skip the rest; maybe take a long weekend in early December and visit Abe Lemons’ grave to apologize on behalf of the university. If you listen closely, you might hear him whisper that when you have a curfew, it’s always your star who gets caught.
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This makes me much less sad that I can't watch any of these games, except for a remote possibility of Gonzaga and Tenn. Thanks
Wow. Thanks for the heads-up. I think. I’ll get my jammies and pillow ready.