Tyrese Hunter and the Texas Roster Fit

Corn fields can suck it

Tyrese Hunter made official the (correct) view that flour tacos are clearly superior to corn, announcing his transfer from Iowa State to Texas and ending the taco wars for good while ensuring future generations know he is on the right side of history. It is a monumental achievement in the bloodiest masa-related conflict in Central Time Zone history, and we should all celebrate the pivotal role of the teenager from Wisconsin; he is an unlikely hero, but our culinary John Connor stepped out of the portal and into his rightful place as Chief Taco Justice in the Supreme Court of Food, which is definitely a real institution that existed well before I needed a way to end a tortured punchline of limited value.

Also, he plays basketball pretty well.

I imagine you’re here to talk about the basketball side of things, especially with the whole taco thing being completely settled forever, so let’s get to it.

Hunter is the reigning Big 12 freshman of the year, which means he beat out the likes of Kendall Brown & Eddie Lampkin for the honors. (UPDATE: I’ve been reminded that Lampkin was a sophomore, despite KenPom showing him as a freshman.) It’s nothing to sneeze at, though as I peruse the list of potential candidates I’m struck by just how old the Big 12 was last year. There were two potential lottery-level freshmen in the conference and they were both playing for Baylor, it’s a little surprising compared to the few years prior. This isn’t meant as a knock on Hunter, I just don’t know how much I internalized the dearth of impact freshmen in the conference as the season went along. Hunter was arguably the only consistent offensive force on the Cyclones last season, Izaiah Brockington may be the only other player who can attempt to make such a claim. Their adjusted offensive efficiency was 171st in D-I, 10 spots below Oklahoma State and far below everyone else in the Big 12. The Cyclones won with defense, period. This places some limits on how much we can project Hunter’s contributions onto the Texas Longhorns, as he will be moving to a team with more offensive talent and likely be asked to do marginally less than was asked of him in Ames. That’s the hope, at least. So let’s talk about Hunter, then delve into how he may fit into things in Austin.

Tyrese Hunter, the player

If you want to skip ahead, the shortest version of this is basically “Hunter is a younger Marcus Carr” with all the pros & cons that entails. (There is a caveat to this which I’ll get to shortly.) Hunter is a volume shooter with questionable three-point acumen, has an aggressive handle with an accompanying high turnover rate. Hunter went 7-11 (63.6%) from three against LSU in the tournament, but he went 30-128 (23.4%) the rest of the season and was 19-67 (28.4%) from three in conference play. Unchecked, he will shoot and pass you into games & he will shoot and pass you out of games. He’s not a ball hog by nature - his assist rate of 32.1 was 40th in the nation, well ahead of anyone on Texas last year - but his turnover rate of 24.1 was closer to Devin Askew (27.7) than Marcus Carr (17.0). The thing is, some portion of this has to do with the offensive limitations of Iowa State last year; Hunter’s possession percentage - which is basically how many possessions ended with the ball in his hands - was 24.9% and over 25% in Big 12 play, only Timmy Allen (24.4%) comes close to how much Hunter was asked to do in games. With that high of a usage rate in a middling offense, some of the negative stats are going to get inflated. The hope is that on a team with more options around him, the turnovers drop without the other stats also dropping. The other caveat I alluded to earlier is that Tyrese Hunter was a true freshman, and as Jeff Haley’s favorite quote goes: the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores. Hunter shooting 27% from three his first season does not mean he will shoot 27% from three his second season. Buddy Hield shot 24% from three his freshman his year and 39% from three his sophomore year; if Hunter improves half as much as Hield he’ll still become a competent perimeter threat…which Texas is desperately going to need. (This is what people in Hollywood call foreshadowing.) I don’t know that it’s wise to count on Hunter making that sort of leap, but it’s entirely plausible to anticipate some improvement on his perimeter game.

Defensively, Hunter will be more than fine. Even as a freshman, he ranked in the top 15% of D-I in Synergy’s overall defensive metrics. He was very good in man defense and elite in a zone, albeit in a small sample size. His length and aggressiveness result in a guard who can generate steals better than most guards, and he already has experience in a no-middle scheme so the adjustment to Chris Beard’s approach will be minimal. From a defensive standpoint, bringing Hunter in is a no-brainer.

In a vacuum, Hunter is a player you take 10 times out of 10 if you’re a high-major program. His age, abilities, and production as a freshman are all quality. I should be very happy about this pick-up, right?

Right?

Photo by Call Me Fred on Unsplash

Tyrese Hunter, the fit

I think it’s best to view this in two distinct lenses: the short-term (this season) & the longer-term (12+ months ahead) because how full my glass is depends on which you’re talking about.

Short-Term

Texas had two major areas to address in this off-season attrition: find better rim protection and improve their perimeter shooting. Tyrese Hunter solves neither of these problems. As mentioned earlier, he’s basically “younger Marcus Carr” which doesn’t make much sense to bring into the fold when you already have “actual Marcus Carr” on the roster. Hunter is a ball-dominant volume shooter entering a program with another volume shooter and an incoming 5-star point guard (Arterio Morris) who might not be super-happy about Hunter’s entrance. I’ve alluded to the possibility that bringing in Hunter could mean Morris heads to the G League Ignite; so far the people who are talking about the situation say Morris intends to stay the course. I hope they’re right! But even if they are, how are you handling minutes in the backcourt with Hunter, Morris, and Carr? It’s one thing to tell Jabari Rice he’s getting a few less minutes, but you now have three guards who have a lot of overlapping skills and at least 2/3 of them expect the ball in their hands a lot. This is a tricky path to navigate and the current coaching staff is not exactly known for their nuance. Personally, if we’re just talking about addressing needs in the upcoming season I would have loudly advocated for going after Isiaih Mosley from Missouri State; he hit 41% of his threes on 160 attempts, you could slide him into an off-ball role, hand the ball to Morris, and let Mosley & Carr rain spot-up threes. As it stands now, Texas has no outside threat on their team this season. There is only one non-freshman who shot higher than 33% from three for their career, and that’s Rice who hit…34%. The notoriously streaky Jase Febres was 35.8% from three for his career, as a point of reference. Hunter does not yet present enough of a three-point threat to make any team who has done a moment of scounting go over screens, and that makes him just like *checks notes* the entire Texas roster. The paint is going to be clogged as hell until the Longhorns show somebody the three-point line is worth defending, and that includes Hunter. This is not to say Hunter is a bad player - he’s quite good! - so much as to point out he doesn’t fill the tactical holes in the roster prior to his arrival. His very good defense doesn’t help the team score, which at some point they have to do if they want to win. Texas games are probably going to be a rough watch against high-major defenses, and unless Hunter regularly goes off like he did against LSU then he’s likely not going to fundamentally change the arc of the season.

Realistically, I think the hope here is that Hunter is willing to share ball-handling duties with Morris, and with a reduced workload his offensive efficiency takes a step forward. If he’s not asked to be the primary creator as much, he can do what he does well and cut down on some of the mistakes. This (relatively) reduced minutes load could also make him a better defender, which would fill a Courtney Ramey-sized hole in the Texas tactics. This review may seem negative, but I believe Tyrese Hunter has a lot of value as a Longhorn..it just may be a longer pay-off than some Texas fans are assuming.

Long-Term

I think the view where going after Hunter makes the most sense is in the longer term. Where Hunter doesn’t really address the gaps in the current roster, him being on the roster for 2-3 years makes this transfer a lot more positive. If Beard can keep him around for 2+ years *glares at camera unblinking like a serial killer* Hunter can become the star of future squads where the Texas staff has time to recruit around him and enable his best traits. I believe that an older Tyrese Hunter has the capacity to be one of the best guards in the country, and Texas would benefit not only from his abilities but the roster stability in a Chris Beard program that to date has had none. Nailing down a high-level point guard in the college game for 2+ seasons affords a coaching staff the ability to really build something, and Hunter can very much be that guy for the Longhorns if things break the right way. It’s under this scenario where taking Hunter makes more sense than going after someone like Isiaih Mosley; Mosley would be a better component of the ‘22-’23 team and raise the ceiling on that season, but Mosley is a 1-year player, as is likely to be the case with Arterio Morris. Hunter’s dividends are, in my view, more on the back end, and if that’s where the Texas staff is making their play then I’m more on board with this addition. I spent a fair amount of time in my Texas post-mortem advocating for Beard & Crew to take a relative hit to this season in the name of building in some stability to the program, and an addition like Hunter can absolutely work in that paradigm. If this season is a step down in the name of moving two steps up a year from now and three steps up two years on, I’m more than willing to make that trade. But they’ve gotta keep Hunter around for 2+ years for that to pay off. Here’s hoping they do.

BWG’s writing tunes provided by Helmahof.

(Corn tortillas are fine, they have their place in this world. Everybody needs a point of comparison to understand why they’re wrong about not wanting flour tortillas.)