Great post! I think you mapped out the uncertainty well. I think another factor that adds to the unpredictability is a) fans are working with an outdated paradigm of college sports; and b) there's a lack of transparency (right now) about what programs are doing, so its hard for fans to get a better understanding. Regarding the outdated paradigm: I talk to a reasonable number of Texas fans (friends, family), and most of them are aware that NIL exists, and that it matters, but they mostly still seem to think that college sports works under the old paradigm of "coach controls everything about the program, players come to a school primarily because of the coach, etc." That puts a lot of pressure on the coach--I heard a number of people say that the lack of high-tier success from the basketball team this year was because Terry couldn't build a good roster. And Terry may not be blameless, but there didn't seem to be a lot of understanding that he was operating under limitations, in terms of NIL money, that other programs don't have.
This relates to the lack of transparency--as far as I know, there's no current way to know how much any particular school is spending on NIL. I follow Texas basketball pretty closely, and my understanding of the NIL money Texas spends is that it's on the low side, but that's all based on message boards, social media posts from reporters with vague hints, etc. This is in contrast to the professional leagues, where it's pretty easy to get a good understanding of how the financial systems works. For example, everybody knows that in the MLB some teams spend more, and often a lot more. This sets important context for the expectations for each team. In college basketball, it seems difficult to really get that context, which I think causes people to fall back on that old paradigm of "the coach is entirely responsible for the state of the program." And to the extent that continues, even under the new system, it's going to lead to unreasonable expectations of the basketball coach.
I'm all in favor of budget transparency as well; you're correct that Terry was frozen out of NIL cash by donors in the last year. It's also one reason why the incoming recruiting class was so sparse. Ideally, the school would be in charge of setting the player budget rather than relying on donors who can be notoriously fickle. (It's not just a Texas thing; for example, Kentucky fans were doing it to Calipari in his last couple of years.) Like you said, it doesn't absolve the coach of his role in things, but the NIL info is important context that can be hard to put hard numbers around if you're not actively digging for it.
At some point I have to believe the SEC and the Big Ten will refuse to play a game where they don't have funding parity with non-football schools in basketball (and probably an advantage). It makes no sense for the two conferences with the most valuable media rights to suffer a competitive disadvantage. This may finally be the straw that breaks the camel's back of the NCAA. I feel like it may lead to a Simpson's Stonecutters situation. "Maybe, but maybe we don't want to be stonecutters no more." In this analogy Greg Sankey is Moe Szyslak.
I appreciate taking that analogy at least two steps too far, that's a tactic with which I am extremely familiar.
If there's one sport the SEC & Big Ten will probably cave on, it's basketball. The sheer amount of cash they have access to with the tourney is significant, and it's unlikely they could break off and form a similarly profitable tourney. The Big 12 & others have tried something with the CBC this year and it seems like it's off to a pretty rocket start; if the SEC/B10 were to try something similar they'd have to get more conferences on board to make it a viable alternative. Never say never, but that's a tough path to navigate successfully.
Wow, the Big East situation stinks! But thank you for this very enlightening column. It’s crazy that after going through all these gyrations to make things “right” college sports might head right back to the old money under the table tradition—only with all the bureaucratic rigamarole layered over it!
Great post! I think you mapped out the uncertainty well. I think another factor that adds to the unpredictability is a) fans are working with an outdated paradigm of college sports; and b) there's a lack of transparency (right now) about what programs are doing, so its hard for fans to get a better understanding. Regarding the outdated paradigm: I talk to a reasonable number of Texas fans (friends, family), and most of them are aware that NIL exists, and that it matters, but they mostly still seem to think that college sports works under the old paradigm of "coach controls everything about the program, players come to a school primarily because of the coach, etc." That puts a lot of pressure on the coach--I heard a number of people say that the lack of high-tier success from the basketball team this year was because Terry couldn't build a good roster. And Terry may not be blameless, but there didn't seem to be a lot of understanding that he was operating under limitations, in terms of NIL money, that other programs don't have.
This relates to the lack of transparency--as far as I know, there's no current way to know how much any particular school is spending on NIL. I follow Texas basketball pretty closely, and my understanding of the NIL money Texas spends is that it's on the low side, but that's all based on message boards, social media posts from reporters with vague hints, etc. This is in contrast to the professional leagues, where it's pretty easy to get a good understanding of how the financial systems works. For example, everybody knows that in the MLB some teams spend more, and often a lot more. This sets important context for the expectations for each team. In college basketball, it seems difficult to really get that context, which I think causes people to fall back on that old paradigm of "the coach is entirely responsible for the state of the program." And to the extent that continues, even under the new system, it's going to lead to unreasonable expectations of the basketball coach.
I'm all in favor of budget transparency as well; you're correct that Terry was frozen out of NIL cash by donors in the last year. It's also one reason why the incoming recruiting class was so sparse. Ideally, the school would be in charge of setting the player budget rather than relying on donors who can be notoriously fickle. (It's not just a Texas thing; for example, Kentucky fans were doing it to Calipari in his last couple of years.) Like you said, it doesn't absolve the coach of his role in things, but the NIL info is important context that can be hard to put hard numbers around if you're not actively digging for it.
At some point I have to believe the SEC and the Big Ten will refuse to play a game where they don't have funding parity with non-football schools in basketball (and probably an advantage). It makes no sense for the two conferences with the most valuable media rights to suffer a competitive disadvantage. This may finally be the straw that breaks the camel's back of the NCAA. I feel like it may lead to a Simpson's Stonecutters situation. "Maybe, but maybe we don't want to be stonecutters no more." In this analogy Greg Sankey is Moe Szyslak.
I appreciate taking that analogy at least two steps too far, that's a tactic with which I am extremely familiar.
If there's one sport the SEC & Big Ten will probably cave on, it's basketball. The sheer amount of cash they have access to with the tourney is significant, and it's unlikely they could break off and form a similarly profitable tourney. The Big 12 & others have tried something with the CBC this year and it seems like it's off to a pretty rocket start; if the SEC/B10 were to try something similar they'd have to get more conferences on board to make it a viable alternative. Never say never, but that's a tough path to navigate successfully.
Wow, the Big East situation stinks! But thank you for this very enlightening column. It’s crazy that after going through all these gyrations to make things “right” college sports might head right back to the old money under the table tradition—only with all the bureaucratic rigamarole layered over it!