Good analysis! I'm a season ticket holder (just to set the context for my comment), and I have been on the fence about Terry all year. I don't think he was an "emotional hire" so much as a "Texas will get killed in the media" hire, after he helped hold the team together the year Beard was fired. And I don't mean that to be as negative as it sounds--getting beat up for letting Terry go would have likely had a pretty negative impact on the program, including by scaring off coaching prospects and recruits.
As for whether Texas should move on, I tend to agree that the downside risk is likely too big. While it's frustrating to think that Texas is not likely to really compete at the top of the SEC, I also enjoy things like the win over A&M and over Kentucky this past weekend, and I think that a coaching change more likely results in Texas falling closer to the bottom of the league than rising to the top, especially given (as you discussed) the lack of a "slam dunk" candidate (insert disclaimer about how I thought Shaka was a slam dunk hire).
Thank you for this insightful analysis. I had the treat of being in Jay Hartzell’s office on the day RT was hired and to get to tell him how glad I was. Yes, it felt emotional, but also he seems such a decent man, and we sorely needed that after the felon dumpster fire. I hear the kvetching without knowing what to think, especially with important wins still cropping up, so thank you for the dive into the issues.
So many times this season I have thought to myself, "I wonder what BWG thinks about all this." I don't get that answer nearly as often as I used to on BC and Pretend We're Football and certainly not as often as I'd like, but it's like manna dipped in hot fudge when it does come. I personally SMH at the Terry hate. Zero returning starters in a conference with 3 of the 4 projected #1 seeds and 14 (!) of its 16 teams potentially in the Dance ... what exactly are these yahoos expecting? Like you say, I'm not 100 percent convinced he's the guy. But I don't think this season is reason to send him packing. Thanks for the analysis, sir. I treasure every syllable.
This season I'm having a hard time assessing with Weaver out and now Kaluma missing some time, but I really like a lot of the fight this team has shown with the caveat that I did not watch the Arkansas game. I root for Terry and hope he can avoid the basketball equivalent of losing to Kansas in football, which, uh, may be losing to Abilene Christian. I thought Porter Moser would have been a solid hire at the time, but he's been underperforming Terry, so what do I know.
If this team were fully healthy all season, they probably win a couple more conference games. Kaluma in particular is a rough guy to miss, he helps in so many ways.
But seriously, great post. I liked the Terry hire, or at least did not dislike it in that I think he may have been one of the better realistic hires available at the time. So why not get the added bonus of rewarding a guy like that if you're in that situation?
But I also had lower short term expectations because of it, which I get is not a setting most other Texas fans have. I'm not saying he's still going to be the guy in 5 years and if a clear candidate emerges that is a plus for the program it must be considered, but I'd be thrilled for Terry if he proved us wrong and it could be a whole lot worse.
Apparently Texas does not value men's hoops enough to be truly NIL competitive. The naysayers on RT actually think it is b/c the big donors don't like RT. I think it is b/c Texas is a football school.
Although it also would not surprise me if the big donors don't like RT.
I note that Will Wade got busted for what is now legal, meaning he is not in the same category as the departed Beard. What do you think of him as a coach - and do you think the big donors would move the needle for him?
If Texas is going to roll the dice then Royal Ivey makes sense from the perspective that KD and Ford love him and he is a good coach who might recruit Sudan. Also, he was the best defensive guard Texas ever had and he came from NYC's HS for the Performing Arts, where he concentrated on Dance. When his teammates realized that dancers attracted women they shut up about it.
RT has a record of success here that exceeds anything since prime Rick. So to put your advice to the unwashed in another nutshell "Be careful for what you wish."
I think I look at Will Wade's LSU results and think they look at lot like Rodney Terry's Texas results, though if it gets big donors off the sidelines maybe he can be more successful. I think this is another reason why Texas keeping its powder dry on a coaching change makes sense; the way NIL has shifted the college landscape is enormous and also not remotely done, and we're seeing a lot of coaches have trouble adjusting to the new way of things. Guys who might have killed it in the bag era may not be as good now that NIL means more schools have legal bags to throw around, and coaches who didn't resort to bags as much may be able to optimize in a way they couldn't/wouldn't before now that NIL is here. It's tough to say a guy who achieved X in 2019 could do so in 2025, especially when you're dealing with a decentralized system of third-party investment like NIL collectives who can decide to yank their support for any reason they choose & cause the whole program to fall apart. Look at Miami & FSU basketball for a couple of examples.
Terry being reasonably adept at roster building in the NIL era despite having what amounts to a hard salary cap speaks to why he might yet figure this all out; if he doesn't, his contract is pretty easy to get out of. This is not a bad place for the Texas AD to be operating from IMO.
Good analysis! I'm a season ticket holder (just to set the context for my comment), and I have been on the fence about Terry all year. I don't think he was an "emotional hire" so much as a "Texas will get killed in the media" hire, after he helped hold the team together the year Beard was fired. And I don't mean that to be as negative as it sounds--getting beat up for letting Terry go would have likely had a pretty negative impact on the program, including by scaring off coaching prospects and recruits.
As for whether Texas should move on, I tend to agree that the downside risk is likely too big. While it's frustrating to think that Texas is not likely to really compete at the top of the SEC, I also enjoy things like the win over A&M and over Kentucky this past weekend, and I think that a coaching change more likely results in Texas falling closer to the bottom of the league than rising to the top, especially given (as you discussed) the lack of a "slam dunk" candidate (insert disclaimer about how I thought Shaka was a slam dunk hire).
Thank you for this insightful analysis. I had the treat of being in Jay Hartzell’s office on the day RT was hired and to get to tell him how glad I was. Yes, it felt emotional, but also he seems such a decent man, and we sorely needed that after the felon dumpster fire. I hear the kvetching without knowing what to think, especially with important wins still cropping up, so thank you for the dive into the issues.
So many times this season I have thought to myself, "I wonder what BWG thinks about all this." I don't get that answer nearly as often as I used to on BC and Pretend We're Football and certainly not as often as I'd like, but it's like manna dipped in hot fudge when it does come. I personally SMH at the Terry hate. Zero returning starters in a conference with 3 of the 4 projected #1 seeds and 14 (!) of its 16 teams potentially in the Dance ... what exactly are these yahoos expecting? Like you say, I'm not 100 percent convinced he's the guy. But I don't think this season is reason to send him packing. Thanks for the analysis, sir. I treasure every syllable.
This season I'm having a hard time assessing with Weaver out and now Kaluma missing some time, but I really like a lot of the fight this team has shown with the caveat that I did not watch the Arkansas game. I root for Terry and hope he can avoid the basketball equivalent of losing to Kansas in football, which, uh, may be losing to Abilene Christian. I thought Porter Moser would have been a solid hire at the time, but he's been underperforming Terry, so what do I know.
If this team were fully healthy all season, they probably win a couple more conference games. Kaluma in particular is a rough guy to miss, he helps in so many ways.
"Just go get Brad Stevens!"
But seriously, great post. I liked the Terry hire, or at least did not dislike it in that I think he may have been one of the better realistic hires available at the time. So why not get the added bonus of rewarding a guy like that if you're in that situation?
But I also had lower short term expectations because of it, which I get is not a setting most other Texas fans have. I'm not saying he's still going to be the guy in 5 years and if a clear candidate emerges that is a plus for the program it must be considered, but I'd be thrilled for Terry if he proved us wrong and it could be a whole lot worse.
Several of us agree with you.
Apparently Texas does not value men's hoops enough to be truly NIL competitive. The naysayers on RT actually think it is b/c the big donors don't like RT. I think it is b/c Texas is a football school.
Although it also would not surprise me if the big donors don't like RT.
I note that Will Wade got busted for what is now legal, meaning he is not in the same category as the departed Beard. What do you think of him as a coach - and do you think the big donors would move the needle for him?
If Texas is going to roll the dice then Royal Ivey makes sense from the perspective that KD and Ford love him and he is a good coach who might recruit Sudan. Also, he was the best defensive guard Texas ever had and he came from NYC's HS for the Performing Arts, where he concentrated on Dance. When his teammates realized that dancers attracted women they shut up about it.
RT has a record of success here that exceeds anything since prime Rick. So to put your advice to the unwashed in another nutshell "Be careful for what you wish."
I think I look at Will Wade's LSU results and think they look at lot like Rodney Terry's Texas results, though if it gets big donors off the sidelines maybe he can be more successful. I think this is another reason why Texas keeping its powder dry on a coaching change makes sense; the way NIL has shifted the college landscape is enormous and also not remotely done, and we're seeing a lot of coaches have trouble adjusting to the new way of things. Guys who might have killed it in the bag era may not be as good now that NIL means more schools have legal bags to throw around, and coaches who didn't resort to bags as much may be able to optimize in a way they couldn't/wouldn't before now that NIL is here. It's tough to say a guy who achieved X in 2019 could do so in 2025, especially when you're dealing with a decentralized system of third-party investment like NIL collectives who can decide to yank their support for any reason they choose & cause the whole program to fall apart. Look at Miami & FSU basketball for a couple of examples.
Terry being reasonably adept at roster building in the NIL era despite having what amounts to a hard salary cap speaks to why he might yet figure this all out; if he doesn't, his contract is pretty easy to get out of. This is not a bad place for the Texas AD to be operating from IMO.